Modelling the first dose of measles vaccination: the role of maternal immunity, demographic factors, and delivery systems

Epidemiol Infect. 2011 Feb;139(2):265-74. doi: 10.1017/S0950268810001329. Epub 2010 Jun 7.

Abstract

Measles vaccine efficacy is higher at 12 months than 9 months because of maternal immunity, but delaying vaccination exposes the children most vulnerable to measles mortality to infection. We explored how this trade-off changes as a function of regionally varying epidemiological drivers, e.g. demography, transmission seasonality, and vaccination coverage. High birth rates and low coverage both favour early vaccination, and initiating vaccination at 9-11 months, then switching to 12-14 months can reduce case numbers. Overall however, increasing the age-window of vaccination decreases case numbers relative to vaccinating within a narrow age-window (e.g. 9-11 months). The width of the age-window that minimizes mortality varies as a function of birth rate, vaccination coverage and patterns of access to care. Our results suggest that locally age-targeted strategies, at both national and sub-national scales, tuned to local variation in birth rate, seasonality, and access to care may substantially decrease case numbers and fatalities for routine vaccination.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Aging
  • Delivery of Health Care*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Immunity, Maternally-Acquired*
  • Immunization Schedule
  • Infant
  • Measles / prevention & control
  • Measles Vaccine / administration & dosage*
  • Measles Vaccine / immunology*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Pregnancy
  • Seasons
  • Vaccination

Substances

  • Measles Vaccine