Comment

World TB Day 2014: finding the missing 3 million

The ethical distribution of life-saving medical and public health interventions to vulnerable groups has often been overlooked. Valuation of life linked to an individual's country of origin, the pharmaceutical industry's prioritisation of profit, the exploitation of vulnerable groups in clinical trials, and the resulting hesitancy towards drugs and vaccines have, among other factors, made the human right to health unattainable for many people. The COVID-19 pandemic presents itself as an opportunity to reverse this long-standing trajectory of unethical practices in global health. By ensuring the ethical inclusion of vulnerable groups in the vaccine development process and making a safe, effective vaccine accessible to all, pharmaceutical companies, governments, and international organisations can usher in a new era of global health that relies solely on ethical decision making.

Understanding the amount of tuberculosis managed by the private sector in India is crucial to understanding the true burden of the disease in the country, and thus globally. In the absence of quality surveillance data on privately treated patients, commercial drug sales data offer an empirical foundation for disease burden estimation.

We used a large, nationally representative commercial dataset on sales of 189 anti-tuberculosis products available in India to calculate the amount of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2013–14. We corrected estimates using validation studies that audited prescriptions against tuberculosis diagnosis, and estimated uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. To address implications for numbers of patients with tuberculosis, we explored varying assumptions for average duration of tuberculosis treatment and accuracy of private diagnosis.

There were 17·793 million patient-months (95% credible interval 16·709 million to 19·841 million) of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2014, twice as many as the public sector. If 40–60% of private-sector tuberculosis diagnoses are correct, and if private-sector tuberculosis treatment lasts on average 2–6 months, this implies that 1·19–5·34 million tuberculosis cases were treated in the private sector in 2014 alone. The midpoint of these ranges yields an estimate of 2·2 million cases, two to three times higher than currently assumed.

India's private sector is treating an enormous number of patients for tuberculosis, appreciably higher than has been previously recognised. Accordingly, there is a re-doubled need to address this burden and to strengthen surveillance. Tuberculosis burden estimates in India and worldwide require revision.

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a relevant clinical and public health infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. TB/HIV coinfection and the development of drug-resistant forms of TB have represented a global concern. Several risk factors, including noncommunicable disease, can favor the emergence of the disease.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global emergency, with an estimated 9.6 million new TB cases worldwide reported in 2014. Twenty-eight percent of these cases were in the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa Region, where the annual case detection rate was 281 per 100 000 population—more than double the global average of 133 per 100 000. Of the 9.6 million people who developed TB, an estimated 1.2 million (12%) were HIV-positive, and the Africa Region accounted for 74% of these cases. Three million people with TB remain undiagnosed and untreated. Globally, an estimated 480 000 had multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB). Whilst of the African countries, only South Africa has reported a high prevalence of MDR-TB, it is likely that all of Sub-Saharan Africa has an unreported high load of drug-resistant TB. Tragically, in 2014, only 48% of individuals diagnosed with MDR-TB had successful treatment and an estimated 190 000 people died of MDR-TB. Of the global TB funding gap of US$ 0.8 billion, the largest funding gap was in the Africa Region, amounting to US$ 0.4 billion in 2015. The MDR-TB pandemic in particular now threatens to devastate entire regions and may fundamentally alter the life-expectancy and demographic profile of many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The theme designated for this year's World TB Day, March 24, 2016, is ‘Unite to End TB’. From the Africa Region, there is an urgent need to seriously address the political, economic, and social factors that influence host–Mycobacterium tuberculosis interactions and result in disease. Recent political and funder initiatives that provide renewed hope for the alleviation of Africa's TB and TB/HIV problems are discussed.