Abstract
Objectives
The economic crisis that emerged after 2008 caused speculation about further postponement of fertility and a recession-induced baby-bust in countries affected by the economic downturn. This paper aims to disentangle short-term and long-term effects of economic context on entry into parenthood and explores variation of postponement and recuperation by age, gender, educational level and welfare state context.
Methods
Random-effects complementary log–log models including macro-level indicators are used to analyse longitudinal microdata on 12,121 first births to 20,736 individuals observed between 1970 and 2005.
Results
Adverse economic conditions and high unemployment significantly reduce first birth hazards among men and women below age 30, particularly among the higher educated. After age 30 economic context continues to affect first birth hazards of men, but not for women. Recuperation of fertility is further associated with access to labour markets and entry into cohabiting unions.
Conclusions
The continuing postponement of first births has clear medical consequences and implications for health policies. Preventive policies should take access to labour markets for younger generations into account as an important factor driving postponement.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
The model including education and the macro-level unemployment rate constitutes a highly significant improvement over the null model, both for men (Δ−2LL = 26,084.42 − 25,790.86 = 293.56 with Δdf = 22 − 18 = 4, p < 0.001) and women (Δ−2LL = 36,348.90 − 35,579.40 = 769.5 with Δdf = 22 − 18 = 4, p < 0.001).
References
Adsera A (2005) Vanishing children: from high unemployment to low fertility in developed countries. Am Econ Rev 95:189–193. doi:10.1257/000282805774669763
Adsera A, Menendez A (2009) Fertility changes in Latin America in the context of economic uncertainty. Institute for the Study of Labour, Bonn. doi:10.1080/00324728.2010.530291
Allison PD (1982) Discrete-time methods for the analysis of event histories. In: Leinhardt S (ed) Sociological methodology. Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, pp 61–98
Andersson G, Kreyenfeld M, Tatjana M (2009) Welfare state context, female earnings and childbearing. In: XXVI population conference. IUSSP, Marrakech, Morocco
Becker G (1981) A treatise on the family. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA
Broekmans JF, Knauff EAH, te Velde ER, Macklon NS, Fauser BC (2006) Female reproductive ageing: current knowledge and future trends. Trends Endocrinol Metab 18:58–65. doi:10.1016/j.tem.2007.01.2004
Butz WP, Ward MP (1979) The emergence of countercyclical US fertility. Am Econ Rev 69:318–328
Council of Europe (2005) Recent demographic developments in Europe, 2004. Council of Europe Publishing, Council of Europe Publishing
De Wachter D, Neels K (2011) Educational differentials in fertility intentions and outcomes: family formation in Flanders in the early 1990s. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 9:237–269. doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2011s227
ESHRE Capri Workshop Group (2005) Fertility and ageing. Hum Reprod Update 11:261–276
Esping-Andersen G (1999) Social foundations of postindustrial economies. Oxford University Press, Oxford. doi:10.1093/0198742002.001.0001
Feinberg EC, Bromer JG, Catherino WH (2005) The evolution of in vitro fertilization: integration of pharmacology, technology, and clinical care. J Pharmacol Exp Ther 313:935–942. doi:10.1124/jpet.104.080051
Frejka T, Sardon J-P (2006) First birth trends in developed countries: persisting parenthood postponement. Demogr Res 15:147–180. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.6
Gilbert WM, Nesbitt TS, Danielsen B (1999) Childbearing beyond age 40: pregnancy outcome in 24,032 cases. Obstet Gynecol 93:9–14. doi:10.1016/S0029-7844(98)00382-2
Gustafsson S (2001) Optimal age at motherhood. Theoretical and empirical considerations on postponement of maternity in Europe. J Popul Econ 14:225–247. doi:10.1007/s001480000051
Heffner LJ (2004) Advanced maternal age—how old is too old? New Engl J Med 351:1927–1929
Hoem JM (1986) The impact of education on modern family-union initiation. Eur J Popul 2:113–133. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2000.2.4
Hoem B (2000) Entry into motherhood in Sweden: the influence of economic factors on the rise and fall in fertility, 1986-1997. Demogr Res 2(4). doi:10.4054/DemRes.2000.2.4
Kravdal O (2002) The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway. Demogr Res 6:263–294. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.10
Kravdal O, Rindfuss RR (2008) Changing relationships between education and fertility: a study of women and men born in 1940 to 1964. Am Sociol Rev 73(5) doi:10.1177/000312240807300508
Kreyenfeld M (2000) Educational attainment and first births: East Germany before and after unification
Lappegard T, Ronsen M (2005) The multifaceted impact of education on entry inti motherhood. Eur J Popul 21:31–49. doi:10.1007/s10680-004-6756-9
Liefbroer AC, Corijn M (1999) Who, what, where, and when? Specifying the impact of educational attainment and labour force participation on family formation. Eur J Popul 15:45–75. doi:10.1023/A:1006137104191
Matsuo H, Symons K, Buellens K, Billiet J (2009) Response based quality assessment in the ESS—Round 3: an update for 23 countries. University of Leuven, Working Paper CeSO/SM, 2009(9), pp 1–64
McDonald P (2000) Gender equity in theories of fertility transition. Popul Dev Rev 26:427–439. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2000.00427.x
Neels K (2010) Temporal variation in unemployment rates and their association with tempo and quantum of fertility: some evidence for Belgium, France and the Netherlands. Population Association of America Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas, p 38
Nelson R (2004) Premature births on the rise. Am J Nurs 104:23–25
Neyer G, Andersson G (2008) Consequences of family policies on childbearing behavior: effects of artifacts? Popul Dev Rev 34:699–724. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00246.x
OECD (2011) Statistical compendium (accessed March 2011)
Ozalp S, Tanir HM, Sener T, Yazan S, Keskin AE (2003) Health risks for early (≤19) and late (≥35) childbearing. Arch Gynecol Obstet 268:172–174. doi:10.1007/s00404-002-0359-7
Schmidt L, Sobotka T, Bentzen JG, Andersen AN (2012) Demographic and medical consequences of the postponement of parenthood. Hum Reprod Update 18:29–43. doi:10.1093/humupd/dmr040
Singer J, Willett J (2003) Applied longitudinal data analysis. Modeling change and event occurrence. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Sobotka T (2004) Is lowest-low fertility in Europe explained by the postponement of childbearing? Popul Dev Rev 30:195–220. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.010_1.x
Sobotka T, Skirbekk V, Philipov D (2011) Economic recession and fertility in the developed world. Popul Dev Rev 37:267–306. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00411.x
Suits DB, Mason A, Chan L (1978) Spline functions fitted by standard regression methods. Rev Econ Stat 60:132–139. doi:10.2307/1924341
Thévenon O (2008) Family policies in Europe: available databases and initial comparisons. In: Gauthier AH, Philipov D (eds) Vienna yearbook of population research. Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna. doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2008s165
Van Giersbergen NPA, De Beer J (1997) Geboorteontwikkeling en consumentenvertrouwen: een econometrische analyse. Maandstatistiek van de bevolking 11:23–27
van Katwijk C, Peeters LLH (1998) Clinical aspects of pregnancy after the age of 35 years: a review of the literature. Hum Reprod Update 4:185–194. doi:10.1093/humupd/4.2.185
Vikat A (2004) Women’s labor force attachment and childbearing in Finland. Demogr Res 10:177–212. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.8
Conflict of interest
The authors do not have any conflict of interest.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is part of the special issue "Life course influences on health and health inequalities: moving towards a Public Health perspective".
Appendix
Appendix
See Table 5 as appendix table.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Neels, K., Theunynck, Z. & Wood, J. Economic recession and first births in Europe: recession-induced postponement and recuperation of fertility in 14 European countries between 1970 and 2005. Int J Public Health 58, 43–55 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-012-0390-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-012-0390-9