Dependent variable | Coefficients (robust SEs) | |||

Quarterly infections per capita | Quarterly deaths per capita | Quarterly GDP shortfall | 2021 annual GDP shortfall minus 2020 annual GDP shortfall | |

First lag doses per capita | ||||

Pfizer-BioNTech | −0.1866*** (0.038) | −0.0015*** (0.0002) | 0.0377** (0.0155) | |

Non-Pfizer-BioNTech brands | −0.1609*** (0.0563) | −0.0003*** (0.0001) | 0.0288* (0.0164) | |

Second lag cumulative doses per capita | ||||

Pfizer-BioNTech | −0.0735 (0.0489) | 0.0008*** (0.0002) | 0.0377** (0.0150) | |

Non-Pfizer-BioNTech brands | −0.1318*** (0.0429) | −0.0003** (0.0001) | 0.07589*** (0.0145) | |

First lag infections per capita | −0.0109 (0.0554) | 0.0007*** (0.0002) | −0.0001233 (0.0244) | |

Second lag cumulative infections per capita | −0.0792** (0.0343) | −0.0004*** (0.0001) | 0.0314** (0.0127) | |

First lag stringency index | −0.0009** (0.0004) | −0.0000011 (0.0000015) | 0.00034 (0.00021) | |

GDP shortfall in 2020 | 0.0333 (0.0351) | |||

Cumulative Pfizer doses per capita at the end of 2021Q4 | 0.0374** (0.0160) | |||

Cumulative non-Pfizer doses per capita at the end of 2021Q4 | 0.0228* (0.0134) | |||

Cumulative infections per capita at the end of 2020Q4 | 0.0958** (0.0392) | |||

Observations | 1160 | 1160 | 407 | 66 |

R^{2} | 0.5573 | 0.4476 | 0.8872 | 0.187 |

Tests of joint significance | ||||

Calendar quarter fixed effects | 251.81*** | 251.81*** | 54.78*** | |

Country fixed effects | 988.71*** | 988.71*** | 27.03*** |

Regression samples: there are 145 countries in the infections and deaths regressions, with 8 quarterly observations each. There are 51 countries in the quarterly GDP regression, some of which have fewer than 8 quarterly GDP observations. The are 66 countries in the annual GDP regression. There are 31 study countries excluded from the GDP analysis either because they do not have GDP data or they have annual GDP data, but vaccinations started after 2021Q1.

*P<0.10.

**P<0.05.

***P<0.01.

GDP, gross domestic product.