Table 2

Base-case regression results

Dependent variableCoefficients (robust SEs)
Quarterly infections per capitaQuarterly deaths per capitaQuarterly GDP shortfall2021 annual GDP shortfall minus 2020 annual GDP shortfall
First lag doses per capita
 Pfizer-BioNTech−0.1866*** (0.038)−0.0015*** (0.0002)0.0377** (0.0155)
 Non-Pfizer-BioNTech brands−0.1609*** (0.0563)−0.0003*** (0.0001)0.0288* (0.0164)
Second lag cumulative doses per capita
 Pfizer-BioNTech−0.0735 (0.0489)0.0008*** (0.0002)0.0377** (0.0150)
 Non-Pfizer-BioNTech brands−0.1318*** (0.0429)−0.0003** (0.0001)0.07589*** (0.0145)
First lag infections per capita−0.0109 (0.0554)0.0007*** (0.0002)−0.0001233 (0.0244)
Second lag cumulative infections per capita−0.0792** (0.0343)−0.0004*** (0.0001)0.0314** (0.0127)
First lag stringency index−0.0009** (0.0004)−0.0000011 (0.0000015)0.00034 (0.00021)
GDP shortfall in 20200.0333 (0.0351)
Cumulative Pfizer doses per capita at the end of 2021Q40.0374** (0.0160)
Cumulative non-Pfizer doses per capita at the end of 2021Q40.0228* (0.0134)
Cumulative infections per capita at the end of 2020Q40.0958** (0.0392)
Observations1160116040766
R20.55730.44760.88720.187
Tests of joint significance
Calendar quarter fixed effects251.81***251.81***54.78***
Country fixed effects988.71***988.71***27.03***
  • Regression samples: there are 145 countries in the infections and deaths regressions, with 8 quarterly observations each. There are 51 countries in the quarterly GDP regression, some of which have fewer than 8 quarterly GDP observations. The are 66 countries in the annual GDP regression. There are 31 study countries excluded from the GDP analysis either because they do not have GDP data or they have annual GDP data, but vaccinations started after 2021Q1.

  • *P<0.10.

  • **P<0.05.

  • ***P<0.01.

  • GDP, gross domestic product.