Table 3

Global VoCV by value component and focal brand (2019 US$)

PandemicPredicted pandemicPredicted zero vaccinationPredicted zero Pfizer-BioNTech vaccinationVoCV all vaccine brandsVoCV Pfizer-BioNTech
(A)(B)(C)(D)(E)=(C)−(B)(F)=(D)−(B)
Global GDP shortfallUS$5.5TUS$5.6TUS$8.2TUS$6.5TUS$2.6TUS$877.8B
GDP share of value54.6%54.2%53.2%52.9%51.2%46.0%
Global infections5.2B5.2B6.9B5.5B1.7B270.7M
Global deaths15.3M15.4M19.4M16.5M4.1M1.1M
Global QALY losses156.6M159.3M214.1M171.2M54.7M11.8M
Global monetary value of QALY lossesUS$4.0TUS$4.1TUS$6.2TUS$4.9TUS$2.1TUS$873.3B
Monetised QALY share of value39.1%39.4%39.9%40.4%40.9%45.8%
Global direct costsUS$101.2BUS$110.6BUS$173.2BUS$138.5BUS$62.6BUS$27.8B
Direct costs share of value1.0%1.1%1.1%1.1%1.2%1.5%
Global indirect costsUS$533.9BUS$540.4BUS$881.2BUS$669.3BUS$340.9BUS$128.9B
Indirect costs share of value5.3%5.3%5.7%5.5%6.6%6.8%
Global total losses or value (GDP+monetary QALY+direct costs+indirect costs)US$10.1TUS$10.3TUS$15.4TUS$12.2TUS$5.2TUS$1.9T
  • (i) The results cover a sample of 148 countries over the years 2020–2021; (ii) each row in table 3 represents a value element. (A) and (B) provide estimates of pandemic impact on those value elements, where (A) relies on actual data and (B) relies on our regression predicted values; (C) and (D) provide estimates of these value elements in our no-vaccination counterfactuals; (E) and (F) provide estimates of the impact of vaccination on these value elements, where (E) reflects the impact of all vaccines taken together and (F) reflects the impact of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination alone. All rounded results in (A) to (F) are computed from unrounded underlying inputs, so that the rounded differences in (E) and (F) will not equal differences of the rounded numbers in (B), (C) and (D).

  • B, billion; GDP, gross domestic product; M, million; QALY, quality-adjusted life year; T, trillion; VoCV, value of COVID-19 vaccination.