Pandemic | Predicted pandemic | Predicted zero vaccination | Predicted zero Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination | VoCV all vaccine brands | VoCV Pfizer-BioNTech | |
(A) | (B) | (C) | (D) | (E)=(C)−(B) | (F)=(D)−(B) | |
Global GDP shortfall | US$5.5T | US$5.6T | US$8.2T | US$6.5T | US$2.6T | US$877.8B |
GDP share of value | 54.6% | 54.2% | 53.2% | 52.9% | 51.2% | 46.0% |
Global infections | 5.2B | 5.2B | 6.9B | 5.5B | 1.7B | 270.7M |
Global deaths | 15.3M | 15.4M | 19.4M | 16.5M | 4.1M | 1.1M |
Global QALY losses | 156.6M | 159.3M | 214.1M | 171.2M | 54.7M | 11.8M |
Global monetary value of QALY losses | US$4.0T | US$4.1T | US$6.2T | US$4.9T | US$2.1T | US$873.3B |
Monetised QALY share of value | 39.1% | 39.4% | 39.9% | 40.4% | 40.9% | 45.8% |
Global direct costs | US$101.2B | US$110.6B | US$173.2B | US$138.5B | US$62.6B | US$27.8B |
Direct costs share of value | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
Global indirect costs | US$533.9B | US$540.4B | US$881.2B | US$669.3B | US$340.9B | US$128.9B |
Indirect costs share of value | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% |
Global total losses or value (GDP+monetary QALY+direct costs+indirect costs) | US$10.1T | US$10.3T | US$15.4T | US$12.2T | US$5.2T | US$1.9T |
(i) The results cover a sample of 148 countries over the years 2020–2021; (ii) each row in table 3 represents a value element. (A) and (B) provide estimates of pandemic impact on those value elements, where (A) relies on actual data and (B) relies on our regression predicted values; (C) and (D) provide estimates of these value elements in our no-vaccination counterfactuals; (E) and (F) provide estimates of the impact of vaccination on these value elements, where (E) reflects the impact of all vaccines taken together and (F) reflects the impact of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination alone. All rounded results in (A) to (F) are computed from unrounded underlying inputs, so that the rounded differences in (E) and (F) will not equal differences of the rounded numbers in (B), (C) and (D).
B, billion; GDP, gross domestic product; M, million; QALY, quality-adjusted life year; T, trillion; VoCV, value of COVID-19 vaccination.