Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Median | Source(s) | |

Health variables | |||||

Per capita COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per quarter* | |||||

Pfizer-BioNTech new doses, 2020Q4–2021Q3 | 0 | 0.608 | 0.060 | 0.00057 | Constructed by authors from IHME COVID-19 vaccine administration data |

Non-Pfizer-BioNTech new doses, 2020Q4 –2021Q3 | 0 | 0.971 | 0.105 | 0.027 | Constructed by authors from IHME COVID-19 vaccine administration data |

Cumulative Pfizer-BioNTech doses through 2021Q4 | 0 | 1.600 | 0.142 | 0.015 | Constructed by authors from IHME COVID-19 vaccine administration data |

Cumulative non-Pfizer-BioNTech doses through 2021Q4 | 0.044 | 1.984 | 0.642 | 0.551 | Constructed by authors from IHME COVID-19 vaccine administration data |

Per capita COVID-19 deaths per quarter† | |||||

Scaled for excess mortality (base-case) | 0 | 0.0040 | 0.00033 | 0.00014 | IHME official deaths adjusted by IHME for under-reporting |

Unscaled (sensitivity analysis) | 0 | 0.0015 | 0.00013 | 0.000025 | IHME unadjusted official reported deaths |

Per capita COVID-19 infections per quarter‡ | |||||

Mean estimate (base-case) | 0 | 1.197 | 0.103 | 0.064 | IHME data on daily COVID-19 infections |

Lower bound estimate (sensitivity analysis) | 0 | 0.465 | 0.060 | 0.035 | IHME data on daily COVID-19 infections |

Upper bound estimate (sensitivity analysis) | 0 | 2.355 | 0.165 | 0.088 | IHME data on daily COVID-19 infections |

COVID-19 hospitalisations per quarter | |||||

COVID-19 hospital admissions | 0 | 5 949 463 | 38 961 | 5700 | IHME |

COVID-19 ICU beds | 0 | 14 705 973 | 99 444 | 10 423 | IHME |

Infection severity levels§ | |||||

Proportion asymptomatic | 0.192 | 0.192 | 0.192 | 0.192 | Derived by authors using IHME data. See S4.1.2.1 for details |

Proportion mild | 0.656 | 0.808 | 0.789 | 0.795 | Derived by authors using IHME data. See S4.1.2.1 for details |

Proportion severe | 0.0000717 | 0.076 | 0.012 | 0.008 | Derived by authors using IHME data. See S4.1.2.1 for details |

Proportion critical | 0.0000047 | 0.039 | 0.002 | 0.001 | Derived by authors using IHME data. See S4.1.2.1 for details |

Proportion fatal | 0 | 0.0764 | 0.0043 | 0.0023 | Derived by authors using IHME data. See S4.1.2.1 for details |

QALY loss per fatal infection | 2.74 | 14.76 | 7.63 | 7.56 | Constructed by authors. See S4.1.1 for details |

QALY loss per non-fatal infection | 0.0074 | 0.0166 | 0.0080 | 0.0078 | Constructed by authors. See S4.1.2 for details |

Healthcare utilisation variables | |||||

Healthcare utilisation, length of stay (days) | |||||

Asymptomatic infection | 0 | Assumption | |||

Mild infection | 1 | Constructed from Di Fusco et al.20 See S4.1.2.1 for details | |||

Severe infection | 6.21 | 6.36 | 6.27 | 6.26 | Constructed from Di Fusco et al.20 See S4.1.2.1 for details |

Critical infection | 12.85 | 14.08 | 13.46 | 13.46 | Constructed from Di Fusco et al.20 See S4.1.2.1 for details |

Healthcare unit cost (2019 US$) | |||||

Asymptomatic infection, cost per infection | 0 | Assumption | |||

Mild infection, cost per outpatient visit | 0.01 | 82.04 | 13.93 | 5.61 | Constructed by authors. See S4.2.1 for details |

Severe infection, cost per bed day | 0.03 | 1208.57 | 170.01 | 46.79 | Constructed by authors. See S4.2.1 for details |

Critical infection, cost per bed day | 0.04 | 1629.34 | 229.20 | 63.08 | Constructed by authors. See S4.2.1 for details |

Direct medical cost per infection (2019 US$) | 0.01 | 637.38 | 46.13 | 8.71 | Constructed by authors. See S4.2 for details |

Economic variables | |||||

Per capita quarterly projected GDP (2019 US$) | 553.92 | 21 207.93 | 7264.94 | 5285.60 | Constructed by authors. See S2.4.2 for details |

Per capita quarterly actual GDP (2019 US$) | 386.18 | 24 762.16 | 7075.66 | 5249.14 | Constructed by authors. See S2.4.2 for details |

Quarterly GDP shortfall | 0.69 | 1.20 | 0.96 | 0.97 | Constructed by authors. See S2.4.2 for details |

Per capita annual projected GDP (2019 US$) | 392.44 | 75 547.90 | 9372.72 | 4434.08 | Constructed by authors. See S2.4.2 for details |

Per capita annual actual GDP (2019 US$ | 485.07 | 66 369.04 | 8896.87 | 4116.10 | Constructed by authors. See S2.4.2 for details |

Annual GDP shortfall | 0.49 | 2.07 | 0.98 | 0.96 | Constructed by authors. See S2.4.2 for details |

Unpaid work (hours per day) | 2.20 | 4.12 | 3.13 | 3.01 | Constructed by authors. See S4.3.2 for details |

Non-market time (hours per day) | 6.40 | 9.14 | 7.89 | 8.11 | Constructed by authors. See S4.5 for details |

Daily value of unpaid work, ≥15 years old (2019 US$) | 0.47 | 124.11 | 21.33 | 7.67 | Constructed by authors. See S4.5 for details |

COVID-19-related worktime lost (days) | |||||

Mild infection | 10.00 | Constructed by authors. See S4.3.3 for details | |||

Severe infection without long COVID | 24.18 | 28.04 | 25.89 | 25.68 | Constructed by authors. See S4.3.3 for details |

Severe infection with long COVID | 69.18 | 73.04 | 70.89 | 70.68 | Constructed by authors. See S4.3.3 for details |

Critical infection without long COVID | 93.10 | 107.75 | 100.87 | 100.63 | Constructed by authors. See S4.3.3 for details |

Critical infection with long COVID | 641.10 | 655.75 | 648.87 | 648.63 | Constructed by authors. See S4.3.3 for details |

Indirect cost per non-fatal infection (2019 US$) | 3.84 | 1432.51 | 215.38 | 67.85 | Constructed by authors. See S4.3 for details |

Full income (2019 US$) | 770.89 | 191 931.31 | 34 505.67 | 12 329.47 | Constructed by authors. See S4.5 for details |

Discount rate | 3% | ||||

Other variables and data sources | |||||

Countries (deaths and infections) | 145 | ||||

Countries (quarterly GDP) | 52 | ||||

Countries (annual GDP) | 66 | ||||

Government Response Index | 0 | 85.8 | 44.4 | 52.4 | Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker |

Lifetables | United Nations, World Population Prospects |

*A value of 0.01 would correspond to one vaccine dose received within the country-quarter per 100 in the general population.

†A value of 0.01 would correspond to one death within the country-quarter per 100 in the general population.

‡A value of 0.1 would correspond to one infection occurring within the country-quarter per 10 in the general population.

§Asymptomatic, mild, severe, critical and fatal proportions within a country-quarter sum to 1. Thus, the means of such proportions across country-quarters sum to one but the minimums, maximums and medians do not.

GDP, gross domestic product; ICU, intensive care unit; IHME, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; QALY, quality-adjusted life year.