Unadjusted model on scaled data | Adjusted model on scaled data—population-related variables† | Adjusted model on scaled data—government and economy-related variables‡ | Adjusted model on scaled data—health resources-related variables§ | ||||||

Regression coefficient | P value | R^{2}=0.101 | R^{2}=0.106 | R^{2}=0.089 | |||||

Regression coefficient | P value | Regression coefficient | P value | Regression coefficient | P value | ||||

Population variables | Population density | −0.11 | 0.0565 | 0.07 | 0.414 | ||||

Median age | −0.34 | <0.001 | |||||||

Percentage of population more than 65 years old | −0.46 | <0.001 | −0.07 | 0.280 | |||||

Life expectancy | −0.52 | <0.001 | |||||||

Hypertension | 0.42 | <0.001 | 0.54 | <0.001 | |||||

Diabetes | 0.62 | <0.001 | 0.43 | <0.001 | |||||

Obesity | 0.38 | <0.001 | 0.35 | <0.001 | |||||

PM2.5 (air pollution) | 0.32 | <0.001 | 0.07 | 0.433 | |||||

Government and economy | Gross domestic products (GDP) | −0.33 | <0.001 | ||||||

Human Development Index (HDI) | −0.53 | <0.001 | −0.28 | <0.001 | |||||

Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) | −0.71 | <0.001 | |||||||

Gini index | 0.79 | <0.001 | 0.66 | <0.001 | |||||

Government Effectiveness | −0.55 | <0.001 | |||||||

Government revenue | −0.58 | <0.001 | −0.06 | 0.439 | |||||

Health resources | Hospital beds per thousand population | −0.20 | 0.008 | −0.26 | <0.001 | ||||

Total medical doctors (per 10 000 population) | −0.04 | 0.511 | −0.03 | 0.606 | |||||

Total nursing personnel (per 10 000 population) | −0.37 | <0.001 | 0.04 | 0.541 | |||||

Universal health coverage | −0.48 | <0.001 | |||||||

Completeness of vital registration | 0.02 | 0.75 | 0.13 | 0.023 | |||||

Healthcare Access and Quality Index (HAQ) | −0.62 | <0.001 | −0.67 | <0.001 |

Bold fonts indicate statistically significant p-values, at an alpha level of 0.05.

*Kazakhstan and Peru were excluded from this analysis due to a completeness of vital registration systems of <90% which affects excess mortality estimates.

†Life expectancy removed from model due to collinearity (r≥0.60) with hypertension and median age due to collinearity (r≥0.94) with proportion of population 65+.

‡GDP, IHDI and government effectiveness were removed from model due to collinearity (r≥0.90) between them and with HDI.

§Universal health coverage removed from model due to collinearity (r≥0.80) with HAQ.