Table 2

Facilitators and barriers of using modelling evidence in policy identified in the evaluation

FacilitatorEither facilitator or barrierBarrier
Perceived validity of findings
  • Awareness and understanding of Optima.

  • Familiarity with mathematical modelling.

  • Findings corroborated global guidance.

  • Modelling contextualises global literature and evidence.

  • Extended training.

  • Local capacity.

  • Alignment with country targets and priorities.

  • Data availability and quality.

  • Scepticism of modelling.

  • Uncertainty in underlying data.

  • Dissatisfaction with choice or handling of data.

  • Results challenged expectations or beliefs.

  • Consequences for health and social equity.

Stakeholder engagement
  • Wide range of stakeholders.

  • Multisectoral engagement.

  • Key international funding organisations consulted throughout modelling process.

  • Local ownership.

  • Joint planning.

  • Opportunities for dialogue.

  • Interactive process.

  • Alignment with country needs and priorities.

  • Previous involvement.

  • Follow-up

  • Tailored and clear dissemination products.

  • Engagement with policy and programme leads.

  • Optima involvement driven by international funding organisations.

  • Insufficient opportunity for feedback.

  • Narrow participation.

  • Inadequate dissemination.

Timing and opportunity
  • Completed prior to key grant applications.

  • Sufficient time allocated.

  • Data availability at time of analysis.

  • Integration with other modelling and costing exercises.

  • Finalised too late to inform key strategy or funding organisation decisions.

  • Other priorities competing for time and resources.

Health system financing
  • Health system reform.

  • Mechanisms to transfer funds between activities and funding streams.

  • Influence on budgeting decisions.

  • Funder preferences and priorities.

  • Historical allocation patterns.

  • Line-item budget systems.

  • Fragmented funding streams

Sociopolitical context
  • Political will.

  • Sociopolitical unrest.

  • COVID-19 pandemic and response.