Table 3

Expected local government area service volume by geographical zone

ZoneNo of LGAs in studyPrepandemic monthly OPD volume (average number of visits)OPD volume after shock (percent change)Cumulative postpandemic OPD volume (percent change)Prepandemic monthly ANC volume (average number of visits)ANC1 volume after shock (percent change)Cumulative postpandemic ANC1 volume (percent change)
ComparatorPositive deviantComparatorPositive deviantComparatorPositive deviantComparatorPositive deviantComparatorPositive deviantComparatorPositive deviant
North Central7788.485.8-16.1%15%-17.1%6.6%17.217.0-1.9%47%18%9.4%
South East5278.9380.2-28.5%16%-25.2%7.3%10.48.3-18.1%56.3%18.2%16.7%
South West106102.767.3-24.9%3.4%-24.5%-1.2%14.311.6-17.9%14.2%69%10.8%
Niger Delta8272.460.0-37.4%6.9%-31.9%2.5%11.99.2-16.4%8.5%34%11.2%
North West113203.2240.0-16%12.7%-15.6%4.7%46.549.9-21.9%-29%-6.7%8.9%
North East60411.7188.0-39.3%-2.8%-33.1%-3%60.933.4-26.9%15%-17.7%16.1%
  • Percent change in services relative to the expected volume, where negative numbers are a shortfall, 0 is equal to expected volume, and positive numbers are greater than expected service volumes during the reported period. A shock is defined as three consecutive months of lower-than-expected volumes. The “volume after shock” column reflects the cumulative percent of expected services after the last month of the first shock experienced by an LGA. The cumulative column reflects the cumulative percent of expected service volume between March 2020 and December 2021.

  • ANC1, first antenatal care visit; LGA, local government area; OPD, outpatient department.