Table 3

Expected local government area service volume by geographical zone

Zone	No of LGAs in study	Prepandemic monthly OPD volume (average number of visits)		OPD volume after shock (percent change)		Cumulative postpandemic OPD volume (percent change)		Prepandemic monthly ANC volume (average number of visits)		ANC1 volume after shock (percent change)		Cumulative postpandemic ANC1 volume (percent change)
Zone	No of LGAs in study	Comparator	Positive deviant	Comparator	Positive deviant	Comparator	Positive deviant	Comparator	Positive deviant	Comparator	Positive deviant	Comparator	Positive deviant
North Central	77	88.4	85.8	-16.1%	15%	-17.1%	6.6%	17.2	17.0	-1.9%	47%	18%	9.4%
South East	52	78.9	380.2	-28.5%	16%	-25.2%	7.3%	10.4	8.3	-18.1%	56.3%	18.2%	16.7%
South West	106	102.7	67.3	-24.9%	3.4%	-24.5%	-1.2%	14.3	11.6	-17.9%	14.2%	69%	10.8%
Niger Delta	82	72.4	60.0	-37.4%	6.9%	-31.9%	2.5%	11.9	9.2	-16.4%	8.5%	34%	11.2%
North West	113	203.2	240.0	-16%	12.7%	-15.6%	4.7%	46.5	49.9	-21.9%	-29%	-6.7%	8.9%
North East	60	411.7	188.0	-39.3%	-2.8%	-33.1%	-3%	60.9	33.4	-26.9%	15%	-17.7%	16.1%
National	490	154.9	145.2	-27.1%	8.6%	-24.6%	2.8%	27.4	19.3	-17.2%	18.7%	19.1%	12.2%

Percent change in services relative to the expected volume, where negative numbers are a shortfall, 0 is equal to expected volume, and positive numbers are greater than expected service volumes during the reported period. A shock is defined as three consecutive months of lower-than-expected volumes. The “volume after shock” column reflects the cumulative percent of expected services after the last month of the first shock experienced by an LGA. The cumulative column reflects the cumulative percent of expected service volume between March 2020 and December 2021.
ANC1, first antenatal care visit; LGA, local government area; OPD, outpatient department.