Table 3

Model comparison of Poisson and negative binomial models.

Outcome	Model form	Estimate	SE	P	AIC
Reported outbreaks	Poisson	0.0479	0.0083	<0.001	153.35
Reported outbreaks	Negative binomial	0.0486	0.0086	<0.001	155.17
Reported deaths	Poisson	0.110	0.0009	<0.001	62 430.1
Reported deaths	Negative binomial	0.0838	0.0224	<0.001	457.1

AIC, Akaike information criterion; P, P-value; SE, standard error.