Table 2

Upper bounds on the maximum increase and decrease in disease incidence reduction in 2050, compared with the no self-clearance scenario, that can result when allowing self-clearance rates higher than those provided in Emery et al15

ChinaIndia
Max increaseMax decreaseMax increaseMax decrease
NCI POI12%0%16%1%
NCI POID11%0%16%1%
CI POD14%21%17%19%
CI POID20%25%25%22%
  • These values are obtained in the extreme case where there are no individuals in infection-slow compartments, so they should be regarded as strong, limit values, which are not realistic.

  • CI, current infection; NCI, no CI; POD, prevention of disease; POI, prevention of infection; POID, prevention of infection and disease.