Preoperative characteristics | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | ||
Hazard ratio (95% CI) | P value | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | P value | |
Age at first surgery≥16 years | 2.9 (1.3 to 6.3) | 0.006 | 2.0 (0.8 to 4.7) | 0.1 |
Female* | 1.1 (0.7 to 1.6) | 0.8 | 1.1 (0.7 to 1.8) | 0.7 |
Severe pulmonary hypertension† | 2.3 (1.5 to 3.7) | <0.001 | 1.9 (1.2 to 3.1) | 0.007 |
NYHA class 3 and 4 | 1.7 (1.1 to 2.7) | 0.02 | 1.0 (0.6 to 1.9) | 0.9 |
Atrial fibrillation or flutter | 1.1 (0.7 to 1.8) | 0.63 | ||
Moderate or greater LV dysfunction | 2.4 (0.8 to 7.7) | 0.13 | ||
Diabetes mellitus | 2.3 (1.4 to 4.0) | 0.002 | 1.0 (0.4 to 2.4) | 0.9 |
Smoking history‡ | 1.8 (1.1 to 2.9) | 0.012 | 1.1 (0.6 to 2.1) | 0.8 |
Hypercholesterolaemia | 1.7 (1.0 to 3.0) | 0.045 | 1.4 (0.8 to 2.7) | 0.2 |
Hypertension | 1.7 (1.1 to 2.7) | 0.02 | 0.9 (0.5 to 1.9) | 0.9 |
Severity of coronary artery disease§ | 5.0 (2.3 to 10.9) | <0.001 | 3.3 (1.3 to 8.4) | 0.012 |
Previous myocardial infarction | 1.4 (0.6 to 3.5) | 0.47 | ||
Transient ischaemic attack | 1.7 (0.4 to 7.2) | 0.43 | ||
Embolic stroke | 1.3 (0.4 to 4.2) | 0.64 | ||
Haemorrhagic stroke | – | – | ||
Bronchiectasis | 2.4 (1.0 to 5.4) | 0.04 | 1.9 (0.8 to 4.6) | 0.1 |
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 2.4 (1.4 to 4.2) | 0.002 | 1.0 (0.4 to 2.3) | 0.9 |
Obstructive sleep apnoea | 2.4 (0.6 to 9.7) | 0.23 | ||
Chronic kidney disease¶ | 8.3 (4.1 to 16.8) | <0.001 | 6.5 (3.0 to 14.0) | <0.001 |
*Binary (defined by health workers).
†Pulmonary hypertension≥50 mmHg (at cardiac catheterisation or estimated at echocardiography).
‡Current or previous tobacco smoker.
§Moderate to severe and severe stenosis on coronary angiogram prefirst surgery.
¶Estimated glomerular filtration rate<60 mL/min/1.73 m2.
LV, left ventricle; NYHA, New York Heart Assessment; RHD, rheumatic heart disease.