Use case 2b (TTI with surveillance) | Use case 2a (TTI without surveillance) | ||||||||||||||
Testing level (share of symptomatic cases/identified contacts) | |||||||||||||||
80% | 60% | 40% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 80% | 60% | 40% | 20% | 10% | 5% | ||||
Share of contacts traced | 75% | Isolation/ quarantine rates | 75% | 4.17 | 2.70 | 1.56 | 0.68 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 1.37 | 0.89 | 0.52 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
50% | 2.60 | 1.73 | 1.02 | 0.45 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.86 | 0.58 | 0.34 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.03 | |||
25% | 1.21 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.02 | |||
50% | 75% | 3.73 | 2.47 | 1.46 | 0.65 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 1.23 | 0.82 | 0.49 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.05 | ||
50% | 2.34 | 1.59 | 0.96 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.77 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.03 | |||
25% | 1.10 | 0.77 | 0.47 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.02 | |||
25% | 75% | 3.25 | 2.22 | 1.36 | 0.63 | 0.30 | 0.15 | 1.07 | 0.74 | 0.45 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.05 | ||
50% | 2.05 | 1.43 | 0.89 | 0.42 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.68 | 0.48 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.03 | |||
25% | 0.97 | 0.69 | 0.44 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.02 | |||
0% | 75% | 2.71 | 1.95 | 1.25 | 0.60 | 0.30 | 0.15 | 0.89 | 0.65 | 0.42 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.05 | ||
50% | 1.71 | 1.25 | 0.81 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.03 | |||
25% | 0.81 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
Source: authors’ simulations using the model in online supplemental appendix A.
TTI, testing, tracing and isolation.