Sensitivity analysis results
| Modified parameter | Base case | β multiplied by 0.68 | β doubled | s0=34% | s0=100% | Infectious period doubled | Latent period halved | RDT sensitivity halved |
| r value | r=5 | r=3.4 | r=10 | r=3.4 | r=10 | r=10 | r=5 | r=5 |
| Use case 1: surveillance | ||||||||
| Time available for boosting (respectively ICU capacity building) with surveillance | 17 (47) | 28 (57) | 8 (37) | 25 (55) | 9 (39) | 14 (46) | 11 (41) | 14 (44) |
| Time available for boosting (respectively ICU capacity building) without surveillance | 3 (33) | 9 (39) | 0 (28) | 7 (36) | 0 (30) | 1 (32) | 0 (30) | 3 (33) |
| Time gained for boosting or ICU capacity building through the use of surveillance | 14 | 19 | 9 | 19 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 11 |
| Use case 2a: TTI* (without surveillance) | ||||||||
| Time to boost (respectively build ICU capacity) | 1 (2) | 5 (5) | 1 (1) | 3 (3) | 1 (1) | 1 (1) | 2 (2) | 1 (1) |
| Percentage reduction in peak ICU demand | 5% | 17% | 2% | 16% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 2% |
| Use case 2b: TTI* (with surveillance) | ||||||||
| Time to boost (respectively build ICU capacity) | 4 (4) | 12 (13) | 3 (3) | 11 (10) | 3 (3) | 4 (5) | 5 (6) | 2 (2) |
| Percentage reduction in peak ICU demand | 6% | 20% | 2% | 20% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 3% |
| Use case 3: health facilities | ||||||||
| Percentage reduction in ICU admissions | Higher r lowers the percentage reduction in nosocomial COVID-19 achievable through screening but increases nosocomial COVID-19 as a share of hospitalised COVID-19 cases. | Lower benefits | ||||||
| Use case 4: test and treat | ||||||||
| Percentage reduction in hospital admissions | Benefits unchanged if the percentage of cases reached and linked to care does not change. | Benefits halved | ||||||
| Percentage reduction in total deaths | ||||||||
Source: authors’ simulations using the model in online supplemental appendix A.
*The values used for these simulations correspond to an optimal testing, tracing and isolation scenario (country type F or 80% tested, 75% isolating and 75% traced).
ICU, intensive care unit; RDT, rapid diagnostic test; TTI, testing, tracing and isolation .