Use cases/scenarios | Indicator | Country capacity, resources and enabling context | Comments | |||||
Worst | Best | |||||||
Country type A | Country type B | Country type C | Country type D | Country type E | Country type F | |||
Use case 1: surveillance | ||||||||
No/poor surveillance | Time gained for action* (days) | Ref | Benefits to the country of origin of the outbreak (other countries benefit more). | |||||
’Good’ surveillance | Time gained for action* (days) | +14 | ||||||
Use case 2: TTI | ||||||||
Use case 2a: late TTI | Time gained for action* (days) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 (2) | Higher testing scenarios also involve higher isolation and tracing. |
Use case 2b: early TTI | Time gained for action* (days) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
Use case 2: TTI | ||||||||
Use case 2a: late TTI | Percentage reduction in peak ICU (or hospitalisation) demand† | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 5% | Higher testing scenarios also involve higher isolation and tracing. |
Use case 2b: early TTI | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 6% | ||
Use case 3: health facilities | ||||||||
RDT screening of staff and patients | Percentage reduction in total ICU admission | 6% range: 1%–21% | Assumes isolation is possible in hospitals. Based on Omicron-like community prevalence, <80% RDT sensitivity and a less transmissible variant. | |||||
Use case 4: test and treat | ||||||||
RDT+linkage to improved treatment | Percentage reduction in total hospital admissions | ≤1%–12% | Benefits driven by (1) the ratio of RDT use to identified cases, (2) the share offered and accepting improved treatment, (3) the risk profile of tested cases. | |||||
Use case 3: health facilities | ||||||||
RDT screening of staff and patients | Percentage reduction in total deaths | 0.5% range: 0%–1% | 1.4% range: 0%–4% | 4.6% range: 1%–13% | 6.9% range: 2%–19% | Assumes isolation is possible in hospitals. Based on Omicron-like community prevalence, <80% RDT sensitivity and a less transmissible variant. | ||
Use case 4: test and treat | ||||||||
RDT+linkage to improved treatment | Percentage reduction in total deaths | ≤0%–1% | ≤1% | ≤1%–4% | ≤4%–9% | ≤3%–14% | ≤7%–21% | Maximum benefits require most of those tested to be offered and accept improved treatment, benefits reduced when lower risk profiles are tested. |
*Applies to time gained for boosting and time gained for ICU capacity building (same results once rounded to the nearest day), except for time gained for ICU capacity building in use case 2a and the optimal TTI scenarios (the value for ICU capacity building is in brackets).
†Same per cent reduction in ICU and hospital bed demand, once rounded to the nearest per cent.
ICU, intensive care unit; RDT, rapid diagnostic test; TTI, testing, tracing and isolation.