Table 3

Summary results: impacts of different use cases on time gained, peak health system burden and deaths

Use cases/scenariosIndicatorCountry capacity, resources and enabling contextComments
WorstEmbedded ImageBest
Country type ACountry type BCountry type CCountry type DCountry type ECountry type F
Use case 1: surveillance
 No/poor surveillanceTime gained for action* (days)RefBenefits to the country of origin of the outbreak (other countries benefit more).
 ’Good’ surveillanceTime gained for action* (days)+14
Use case 2: TTI
 Use case 2a: late TTITime gained for action* (days)000011 (2)Higher testing scenarios also involve higher isolation and tracing.
 Use case 2b: early TTITime gained for action* (days)000124
Use case 2: TTI
 Use case 2a: late TTIPercentage reduction in peak ICU (or hospitalisation) demand†0%0%0%1%2%5%Higher testing scenarios also involve higher isolation and tracing.
 Use case 2b: early TTI0%0%0%1%2%6%
Use case 3: health facilities
 RDT screening of staff and patientsPercentage reduction in total ICU admission6% range: 1%–21%Assumes isolation is possible in hospitals. Based on Omicron-like community prevalence, <80% RDT sensitivity and a less transmissible variant.
Use case 4: test and treat
 RDT+linkage to improved treatmentPercentage reduction in total hospital admissions≤1%–12%Benefits driven by (1) the ratio of RDT use to identified cases, (2) the share offered and accepting improved treatment, (3) the risk profile of tested cases.
Use case 3: health facilities
 RDT screening of staff and patientsPercentage reduction in total deaths0.5% range: 0%–1%1.4%
range: 0%–4%
4.6%
range: 1%–13%
6.9%
range: 2%–19%
Assumes isolation is possible in hospitals. Based on Omicron-like community prevalence, <80% RDT sensitivity and a less transmissible variant.
Use case 4: test and treat
 RDT+linkage to improved treatmentPercentage reduction in total deaths≤0%–1%≤1%≤1%–4%≤4%–9%≤3%–14%≤7%–21%Maximum benefits require most of those tested to be offered and accept improved treatment, benefits reduced when lower risk profiles are tested.
  • *Applies to time gained for boosting and time gained for ICU capacity building (same results once rounded to the nearest day), except for time gained for ICU capacity building in use case 2a and the optimal TTI scenarios (the value for ICU capacity building is in brackets).

  • †Same per cent reduction in ICU and hospital bed demand, once rounded to the nearest per cent.

  • ICU, intensive care unit; RDT, rapid diagnostic test; TTI, testing, tracing and isolation.