Use case 2b (TTI with surveillance) | Use case 2a (TTI without surveillance) | ||||||||||||||
Testing level (share of symptomatic cases/identified contacts) | |||||||||||||||
80% | 60% | 40% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 80% | 60% | 40% | 20% | 10% | 5% | ||||
Share of contacts traced | 75% | Isolation/ quarantine rates | 75% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
50% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |||
25% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |||
50% | 75% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
50% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||
25% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |||
25% | 75% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
50% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||
25% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |||
0% | 75% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
50% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||
25% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Source: authors’ simulations using the model in online supplemental appendix A.
ICU, intensive care unit; TTI, testing, tracing and isolation.