Table 2

Percentage reduction in peak ICU needs in different TTI scenarios


Use case 2b (TTI with surveillance)Use case 2a (TTI without surveillance)
Testing level (share of symptomatic cases/identified contacts)
80%60%40%20%10%5%80%60%40%20%10%5%
Share of contacts traced75%Isolation/
quarantine rates
75%6.0%3.8%2.2%0.9%0.4%0.2%5.2%3.3%1.9%0.8%0.4%0.2%
50%3.7%2.4%1.4%0.6%0.3%0.1%3.2%2.1%1.2%0.5%0.3%0.1%
25%1.7%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.1%1.5%1.0%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.1%
50%75%5.4%3.5%2.1%0.9%0.4%0.2%4.6%3.0%1.8%0.8%0.4%0.2%
50%3.3%2.2%1.3%0.6%0.3%0.1%2.9%1.9%1.2%0.5%0.2%0.1%
25%1.5%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.1%1.3%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.1%
25%75%4.7%3.2%1.9%0.9%0.4%0.2%4.0%2.7%1.7%0.8%0.4%0.2%
50%2.9%2.0%1.2%0.6%0.3%0.1%2.5%1.7%1.1%0.5%0.2%0.1%
25%1.4%1.0%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.1%1.2%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.1%
0%75%3.9%2.8%1.8%0.8%0.4%0.2%3.3%2.4%1.5%0.7%0.4%0.2%
50%2.4%1.8%1.1%0.6%0.3%0.1%2.1%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.2%0.1%
25%1.1%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.1%1.0%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.1%
  • Source: authors’ simulations using the model in online supplemental appendix A.

  • ICU, intensive care unit; TTI, testing, tracing and isolation.