Key analysis parameters
| Parameter | Values (Lb; Ub) | Source |
| Cost-effectiveness parameters | ||
| Treatment costs (2021 US$) | ||
| Per day, per patient unit cost of management of asymptomatic COVID-19 | US$19.75*testing rate | 23 |
| Per day, per patient unit cost of management of mild to moderate COVID-19 | US$19.75*testing rate | 23 |
| Per day, per patient unit cost of management of severe COVID-19 | US$129.45 | 23 |
| Per day, per patient unit cost of management of critical COVID-19 | US$623.14 | 23 |
| Testing rate | ||
| †Testing rate in the population | 0.52% | Proportion of reported to modelled cases |
| Vaccination costs (2021 US$) | ||
| Vaccine procurement costs per dose | US$8.67 (Base cost: US$7 and including importation costs) | 22 |
| Supplies procurement costs per dose | US$0.08 | 22 |
| Vaccine delivery cost per dose (no vaccination) | US$0 | 22 |
| Vaccine delivery cost per dose (30% coverage) | US$6.11 | 22 |
| Vaccine delivery cost per dose (50% coverage) | US$4.16 | 22 |
| Vaccine delivery cost per dose (70% coverage) | US$3.90 | 22 |
| Duration of disease and length of hospitalisation | ||
| Length of hospitalisation for severe episode | 7 days (4–11) | Assumption |
| Length of ICU stay for critical episode | 7 days (4–11) | 15 |
| Duration of asymptomatic disease | 7 days | Assumption |
| Duration of mild to moderate disease | 7 days | Assumption |
| Duration of severe disease | 12 days | 27 |
| Duration of critical disease | 20 days | 27 |
| DALYs | ||
| Disability weight for asymptomatic episode | 0 | |
| Disability weight for mild/moderate episode | 0.051 (0.032; 0.074) | 28 |
| Disability weight for severe episode | 0.133 (0.088; 0.191) | 28 |
| Disability weight for critical episode | 0.655 (0.579; 0.727) | 29 |
| *Average age at death | 9 | |
| 0–19 years | 9.27 years | |
| 20–49 years | 31.75 years | |
| 50–59 years | 54.10 years | |
| 60–69 years | 63.85 years | |
| 70–79 years | 73.41 years | |
| 80+ years | 86.00 years | |
| Life expectancy | 26 | |
| 0–19 years | 64.10 years | |
| 20–49 years | 40.94 years | |
| 50–59 years | 24.71 years | |
| 60–69 years | 17.64 years | |
| 70–79 years | 11.41 years | |
| 80+ years | 4.84 years | |
| Cost-effectiveness threshold per DALY averted | US$919.11 | 8 30 31 |
| Transmission dynamic model parameters | ||
| Transmission dynamic model values | See online supplemental table S1 | |
*Average age at death is based on the weighted mean age across the different age groups.
†Testing rate: A proxy estimate is used that is calculated as a proportion of reported cases to modelled cases across all severity levels from 1 January 2021 to 19 September 2021.
DALYs, disability-adjusted life-years; ICU, intensive care unit.