Table 3

Projected clinical outcomes, costs and the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in Kenya from a societal perspective

Health outcomesEconomic outcomesOne-way sensitivity analysis of under-reporting in hospitalisations and deaths (factor of under-reporting)
*Averted SARS-CoV-2 infections per 100 000
Median (2.5–97.5th percentile)
*Averted SARS-CoV-2 deaths
Median (2.5–97.5th percentile)
Total costs (US$ millions) Median (2.5–97.5th percentile)Total DALYs (thousands)
Median (2.5–97.5th percentile)
†ICER, (US$ per DALY averted)
Mean (95% CI)
ICER
(4)
ICER
(3)
ICER
(2)
ICER
(1)
Non-rapid vaccination strategy (administered within 1.5 years)
No vaccination787
(740 to 882)
247
(243 to 252)
30% coverage32
(24 to 38)
8132
(7914 to 8373)
614
(589 to 659)
114
(110 to 118)
−1343
(−1345 to −1341)
Dominant
−905
(−907 to −902) Dominant
−175
(−178 to −173)
Dominant
1278
(1275 to 1280)
5595
(5592 to 5598)
50% coverage4
(3 to 5)
810
(757 to 872)
658
(636 to 699)
101
(97 to 104)
3291
(3287 to 3295)
4908
(4903 to 4913)
7598
(7592 to 7605)
12 958
(12 949 to 12 967)
28 878
(28 860 to 28 896)
70% coverage2
(1 to 3)
282
(251 to 317)
763
(742 to 801)
96
(92 to 100)
22 623
(22 602 to 22 645)
29 075
(29 048 to 29 101)
39 791
39 756 to 39 827)
61 093
(61 040 to 61 146)
123 967
(123 863 to 124 072)
Rapid vaccination strategy (administered within 6 months)
No vaccination787
(740 to 882)
247
(243 to 252)
30% coverage39
(29 to 48)
9433
(9197 to 9711)
545
(524 to 582)
93
(89 to 96)
−1,607
(−1609 to −1604)
Dominant
−1,230
(−1232 to −1227) Dominant
−603
(−605 to −600) Dominant
646
(644 to 649)
4357
(4354 to 4360)
50% coverage1
(0.5 to 2)
250
(201 to 296)
620
(599 to 655)
88
(85 to 92)
18 257
(18 226 to 18 287)
23 582
(23 543 to 23 620)
32 440
(32 389 to.32 491)
50 096
(50 020 to 50 173)
102 582
(102 430 to 102 733)
70% coverage0.5
(−0.05 to 1)
161
(106 to 208)
731
(713 to 765)
86
(82 to 89)
44 250
(44 126 to 44 374)
56 074
(55 919 to 56 230)
75 768
(75 560 to 75 976)
115 100
(114 788 to 115 413)
232 667
(232 036 to 233 298)
  • ICER (4), ICER (3), ICER (2) and ICER (1)= under-reporting factors for hospitalisation and deaths used were 4, 3, 2 and 1, respectively. Total averted infections=rounded off to the nearest 100 000; Total Cost=rounded off to the nearest 1 000 000; Total DALY rounded off to the nearest 1000; Total deaths and ICERs=rounded off to the nearest whole number.

  • *Averted SARS-Cov-2 infections and deaths = This is the incremental averted infections/deaths compared with the vaccination strategy that appears in the row above.

  • †ICER=Baseline ICER used in analysis where under-reporting in hospitalisations and deaths is adjusted with a factor of 5.

  • DALYs, disability-adjusted life-years; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.