Analysis by income group
| Scenario | Year(s) | Projected fiscal space by income group | Overall | ||
| Low income | Lower middle income | Upper middle income and high income | |||
| Projected fiscal space for HWF (US$ million)—business-as-usual scenario | Baseline (2021) | 1198.07 | 1693.07 | 9288.21 | 12 179.35 |
| 2022 | 1246.26 | 1806.11 | 9722.56 | 12 774.94 | |
| 2023 | 1342.34 | 1896.69 | 10 052.25 | 13 291.28 | |
| 2024 | 1458.43 | 2023.95 | 10 385.04 | 13 867.41 | |
| 2025 | 1581.84 | 2173.90 | 10 735.80 | 14 491.54 | |
| 2026 | 1712.65 | 2341.09 | 11 558.39 | 15 612.13 | |
| 5-year cumulative | 7341.51 | 10 241.74 | 52 454.03 | 70 037.28 | |
| Projected fiscal space for HWF (US$ million)—optimistic scenario | Baseline (2021) | 1198.07 | 1693.07 | 9288.21 | 12 179.35 |
| 2022 | 1264.96 | 1833.21 | 9868.40 | 12 966.56 | |
| 2023 | 1382.91 | 1954.01 | 10 356.08 | 13 693.00 | |
| 2024 | 1525.05 | 2116.40 | 10 859.41 | 14 500.85 | |
| 2025 | 1678.90 | 2307.30 | 11 394.59 | 15 380.79 | |
| 2026 | 1845.01 | 2522.02 | 12 451.67 | 16 818.69 | |
| 5-year cumulative | 7696.82 | 10 732.93 | 54 930.14 | 73 359.90 | |
| Projected fiscal space for HWF (US$ million)—very optimistic scenario | Baseline (2021) | 1198.07 | 1693.07 | 9288.21 | 12 179.35 |
| 2022 | 1653.03 | 2386.53 | 10 098.04 | 14 137.60 | |
| 2023 | 1809.86 | 2547.95 | 10 602.85 | 14 960.65 | |
| 2024 | 1997.68 | 2757.33 | 11 122.64 | 15 877.65 | |
| 2025 | 2201.36 | 3001.24 | 11 675.98 | 16 878.58 | |
| 2026 | 2418.88 | 3276.25 | 12 753.68 | 18 448.81 | |
| 5-year cumulative | 10 080.81 | 13 969.30 | 56 253.19 | 80 303.30 | |
| Comparison of change in potential fiscal space between the different scenarios | Business-as-usual scenario vs optimistic scenario | 43.3% | 28.5% | 24.1% | |
| Business-as-usual scenario vs very optimistic scenario | 345.0% | 349.7% | 155.8% | ||
| Optimistic scenario vs very optimistic scenario | 287.7% | 306.7% | 125.8% | ||
| Business-as-usual scenario as % of GDP | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.7% | ||
| Optimistic scenario as % GDP | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.7% | ||
| Very optimistic scenario as % of GDP | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.7% | ||
| % change in fiscal space business-as-usual scenario | 43.1% | 31.7% | 46.8% | ||
| % change in fiscal space optimistic scenario | 54.2% | 41.9% | 58.1% | ||
| % change in fiscal space very optimistic scenario | 105.1% | 113.9% | 94.0% | ||
Note: Low-income countries (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Eswatini, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Sudan and Uganda), lower-middle-income countries (Comoros, Kenya, Lesotho, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe) and upper-middle-income and high-income countries (Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles and South Africa).
GDP, gross domestic product; HWF, health workforce.