Table 3

Key results for the sensitivity analyses (over a 20-year time horizon)

Sensitivity analysis: elasticities, CHE thresholds, wage ratesOverallQIQIIQIIIQIVQV
Panel A: varying elasticities
Drinker groups adjusted for wealth (base case)
Deaths averted22 60041007400400038001400
Change in consumption expenditures for drinkers
(ZAR million)
R353 000R46 000R52 000R72 800R84 500R97 600
No wealth gradient: −0.4/–0.22/−0.18 moderate/occasional binge/heavy drinkers
Deaths averted18 71715006500440045001800
Change in consumption expenditures for drinkers
(ZAR million)
R348 600R51 800R58 900R67 800R78 800R91 200
No drinker gradient: –0.86/–0.5 poorest–poorer/middle–richest
Deaths averted52 40011 80018 40010 60083003400
Change in consumption expenditures for drinkers
(ZAR million)
R106 000–R9900–R5900R33 900R40 200R47 800
Panel B: cases of CHE averted at 10%, 25% and 40% thresholds
10% (base case)564 700176 70082 000115 900153 80036 400
25%401 30050 20081 900115 700153 6000
40%401 30050 20081 900115 700153 6000
Panel C: indirect cost savings (ZAR million) for baseline and minimum wage
Indirect costs savings using mean wage by quintile (base case)R51 100R4700R11 600R8400R11 800R14 700
Indirect cost savings using minimum wage applied across all quintilesR20 700R4100R7200R4100R3800R1500
  • Deaths averted and CHE cases averted rounded to the nearest hundred.

  • Financial outcomes rounded to the nearest hundred million.

  • A, change in deaths averted and alcohol consumption expenditures for three distinct price elasticity sets; B, cases of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) with 10/25/40% thresholds; C, indirect cost savings using wage by quintile versus minimum wage across the quintiles.

  • QI, poorest wealth quintile; QV, richest wealth quintile; ZAR/R, South African Rand.