Table 3

Key results for the sensitivity analyses (over a 20-year time horizon)

Sensitivity analysis: elasticities, CHE thresholds, wage rates	Overall	QI	QII	QIII	QIV	QV
	Overall	QI	QII	QIII	QIV	QV	Panel A: varying elasticities
Drinker groups adjusted for wealth (base case)
Deaths averted	22 600	4100	7400	4000	3800	1400
Change in consumption expenditures for drinkers (ZAR million)	R353 000	R46 000	R52 000	R72 800	R84 500	R97 600
No wealth gradient: −0.4/–0.22/−0.18 moderate/occasional binge/heavy drinkers
Deaths averted	18 717	1500	6500	4400	4500	1800
Change in consumption expenditures for drinkers (ZAR million)	R348 600	R51 800	R58 900	R67 800	R78 800	R91 200
No drinker gradient: –0.86/–0.5 poorest–poorer/middle–richest
Deaths averted	52 400	11 800	18 400	10 600	8300	3400
Change in consumption expenditures for drinkers (ZAR million)	R106 000	–R9900	–R5900	R33 900	R40 200	R47 800
Panel B: cases of CHE averted at 10%, 25% and 40% thresholds
10% (base case)	564 700	176 700	82 000	115 900	153 800	36 400
25%	401 300	50 200	81 900	115 700	153 600	0
40%	401 300	50 200	81 900	115 700	153 600	0
Panel C: indirect cost savings (ZAR million) for baseline and minimum wage
Indirect costs savings using mean wage by quintile (base case)	R51 100	R4700	R11 600	R8400	R11 800	R14 700
Indirect cost savings using minimum wage applied across all quintiles	R20 700	R4100	R7200	R4100	R3800	R1500

Deaths averted and CHE cases averted rounded to the nearest hundred.
Financial outcomes rounded to the nearest hundred million.
A, change in deaths averted and alcohol consumption expenditures for three distinct price elasticity sets; B, cases of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) with 10/25/40% thresholds; C, indirect cost savings using wage by quintile versus minimum wage across the quintiles.
QI, poorest wealth quintile; QV, richest wealth quintile; ZAR/R, South African Rand.