Table 1

Risk of initial acute rheumatic fever hospitalisation (2010–2018) following a GAS positive throat swab (2010–2017), Auckland, New Zealand

	ARF risk following GAS positive throat swab*			ARF risk following GAS negative throat swab†*			RR
	Total ARF following GAS positive swab	Total GAS positive swabs	ARF per 100 000 GAS positive swabs	Total ARF following GAS negative swab	Total GAS negative swabs	ARF per 100 000 GAS negative swabs	Risk of ARF following GAS-positive swab versus GAS-negative swab RR (95% CI)
*Risk of initial ARF hospitalisation during specific time window (total population)*
ARF 1–7 days of swab	34	204 085	16.7	35	1 223 456	2.9	5.82 (3.63 to 9.34)
ARF 8–90 days of swab	84	204 085	41.2	99	1 223 456	8.0	5.14 (3.84 to 6.88)
ARF 1–365 days of swab	236	204 084	115.6	599	1 223 456	49.0	2.36 (2.03 to 2.75)
*Risk of initial ARF hospitalisation, restricted to 8–90* days
Age group (years) (8–90 days following swab)
<5	0	14 954	–	0	108 358	–	–
5–9	24	95 942	25.0	40	502 493	8.0	3.14 (1.89 to 5.21)
10–14	49	46 380	105.6	51	281 904	18.1	5.64 (3.93 to 8.67)
15–19	7	11 539	60.7	5	86 256	5.8	10.47 (3.32 to 32.97)
20–29	4	13 133	30.5	2	83 588	2.4	12.73 (2.33 to 69.49)
>29	0	22 137	–	0	160 857	–	–
Gender (8–90 days following a swab)
Male	40	98 433	40.6	48	546 398	8.8	4.63 (3.04 to 7.04)
Female	44	105 652	41.6	50	677 058	7.4	5.64 (3.76 to 8.64)
Prioritised ethnicity (8–90 days following a swab)
Māori	23	44 990	50.0	23	266 521	8.6	5.79 (3.25 to 10.33)
Pacific	57	80 854	70.5	73	476 335	15.7	4.48 (3.70 to 6.32)
Māori and Pacific	80	126 844	63.1	98	742 856	13.2	4.78 (3.56 to 6.42)
Asian	0	14 221	–	0	132 879	–	–
NZ European/Other	4	63 020	6.3	0	347 721	–	–
Socio-economic deprivation (NZ Dep quintile) (8–90 days following a swab)
1 (low deprivation)	1	23 842	4.2	0	132 310	–	–
2	3	23 693	12.7	5	134 763	3.7	3.41 (0.82 to 14.28)
3	6	19 834	30.3	3	108 675	2.8	10.96 (2.74 to 43.83)
4	12	22 591	53.1	15	131 431	11.4	4.65 (2.18 to 9.94)
5 (high deprivation)	62	114 125	54.3	75	616 277	12.2	5.19 (3.71 to 7.26)
*Risk of initial ARF hospitalisation, during 8–90 day window restricted to Māori and Pacific aged 10–19 years*
Gender (8–90 days following a swab)
Male	25	20 673	120.9	28	113 699	24.6	4.91 (2.86 to 8.42)
Female	27	20 496	131.7	28	129 348	21.6	6.09 (3.59 to 10.32)
Prioritised ethnicity (8–90 days following a swab)
Māori	14	13 737	101.9	18	85 588	21.0	4.85 (2.41 to 9.74)
Pacific	38	27 432	138.5	38	157 457	24.1	5.74 (3.64 to 8.99)
Socio-economic deprivation (NZ Dep quintile) (8–90 days following a swab)
1 (low deprivation)	0	680	–	0	3987	–	–
2	2	1575	127.0	5	8882	56.3	2.26 (0.22 to 11.62)
3	4	1910	209.4	3	9794	30.6	6.84 (1.53 to 30.52)
4	5	4237	118.0	8	23 053	34.7	3.40 (1.11 to 10.39)
5 (high deprivation)	41	32 767	125.1	40	197 330	20.3	6.17 (3.99 to 9.54)
Total	52	41 169	126.3	55	243 047	23.0	5.48 (3.76 to 7.99)
Antibiotics dispensed (within 7 days of swab among Māori and Pacific People aged 5–19 years)
Antibiotics	43	52 730	81.5	19	100 107	19.0	4.30 (2.50 to 7.37)
No antibiotics	33	55 744	59.2	77	534 334	14.4	4.11 (2.73 to 6.18)

Boldface values relate to the Total data. Significance is P >0.05.
*GAS-positive skin swabs were excluded±14 days of all throat swabs.
†GAS-negative swabs were also culture negative for group C/G streptococci.
ARF, acute rheumatic fever; GAS, group A streptococcus; RR, risk ratio.