Table 1

Excess death factor (ratio of observed and expected deaths) using death records from 1 January to 22 September 2020 (presented in Cuéllar et al4), estimates using the complete 2020 death data from 1 January to 29 December 2020, and estimates for the difference

OverallWomenMenMestizosIndigenous
EDF up to 23 September 20201.711.561.831.362.21
95% CI1.7 to 1.721.54 to 1.581.81 to 1. to 851.35 to 1.382.13 to 2.27
EDF up to 30 December 20201.641.511.751.322.25
95% CI1.63 to 1.651.49 to 1.521.73 to 1.761.31 to 1.332.20 to 2.31
Difference−0.07−0.06−0.08−0.040.05
95% CI−0.08 to –0.06−0.07 to –0.05−0.10 to –0.07−0.05 to –0.040 to 0.08
General populationAge groups
All population0–910–1920–2930–3940–4950–5960–6970–7980–120
EDF up to 23 September 20200.730.781.001.221.631.992.332.071.62
95% CI0.69 to 0.760.73 to 0.830.95 to 1.041.17 to 1.271.58 to 1.681.95 to 2.042.29 to 2.372.04 to 2.11.6 to 1.64
EDF up to 30 December 20200.740.921.121.341.691.882.121.961.54
95% CI0.71 to 0.760.86 to 0.971.08 to 1.161.29 to 1.371.64 to 1.731.83 to 1.912.08 to 2.151.93 to 1.981.52 to 1.56
Difference0.010.140.130.120.05−0.11−0.21−0.11−0.08
95% CI−0.01 to 0.030.09 to 0.170.09 to 0.160.08 to 0.150.01 to 0.09−0.15 to –0.08−0.25 to –0.18−0.14 to –0.09−0.1 to –0.06
Women0 to 910 to 1920 to 2930 to 3940 to 4950 to 5960 to 6970 to 7980 to 120
EDF up to 23 September 20200.740.851.021.241.511.712.011.841.49
95% CI0.69 to 0.780.76 to 0.950.93 to 1.121.15 to 1.331.43 to 1.591.65 to 1.771.95 to 2.061.79 to 1.881.47 to 1.52
EDF up to 30 December 20200.730.941.191.341.591.651.881.751.42
95% CI0.69 to 0.770.86 to 1.031.09 to 1.271.25 to 1.411.51 to 1.651.59 to 1.71.82 to 1.921.71 to 1.791.39 to 1.44
Difference−0.010.090.170.10.08−0.06−0.13−0.08−0.07
95% CI−0.04 to 0.020.02 to 0.160.08 to 0.240.02 to 0.170.01 to 0.13−0.1 to –0.02−0.17 to –0.09−0.12 to –0.05−0.1 to –0.06
Men0 to 910 to 1920 to 2930 to 3940 to 4950 to 5960 to 6970 to 7980 to 120
EDF up to 23 September 20200.720.740.991.211.712.192.592.261.77
95% CI0.68 to 0.760.68 to 0.810.94 to 1.041.15 to 1.271.64 to 1.782.13 to 2.262.53 to 2.642.22 to 2.311.74 to 1.8
EDF up to 30 December 20200.750.911.101.341.752.042.312.121.69
95% CI0.71 to 0.780.84 to 0.971.05 to 1.151.28 to 1.391.69 to 1.811.98 to 2.092.26 to 2.362.08 to 2.161.66 to 1.71
Difference0.030.170.120.130.04−0.15−0.27−0.14−0.08
95% CI0 to 0.060.11 to 0.210.07 to 0.150.08 to 0.17−0.01 to 0.09−0.2 to –0.11−0.32 to –0.23−0.18 to –0.11−0.11 to –0.06
Indigenous populationAge groups
All population0–910–1920–2930–3940–4950–5960–6970–7980–120
EDF up to 23 September 20201.141.131.441.372.132.643.292.861.84
95% CI0.96 to 1.320.82 to 1.471.21 to 1.691.15 to 1.611.87 to 2.412.4 to 2.87(3.06 to 3.492.69 to 3.041.74 to 1.94
EDF up to 30 December 20201.271.291.611.512.302.423.002.772.08
95% CI1.13 to 1.411.07 to 1.561.43 to 1.831.33 to 1.72.1 to 2.52)2.24 to 2.592.83 to 3.162.64 to 2.91.99 to 2.15
Difference0.130.160.160.140.17−0.22−0.29−0.090.24
95% CI0.02 to 0.24−0.04 to 0.370 to 0.33−0.02 to 0.290.12 to 0.21−0.35 to –0.1−0.42 to –0.16−0.19 to 0.010.18 to 0.31
Women0–910–1920–2930–3940–4950–5960–6970–7980–120
EDF up to 23 September 20201.100.912.141.652.342.343.062.541.79
95% CI0.83 to 1.360.5 to 1.391.57 to 2.751.21 to 2.121.91 to 2.831.99 to 2.642.75 to 3.352.31 to 2.781.66 to 1.93
EDF up to 30 December 20201.341.302.411.682.522.232.822.542.04
95% CI1.12 to 1.540.93 to 1.721.94 to 2.91.34 to 2.052.16 to 2.891.99 to 2.492.58 to 3.052.37 to 2.731.92 to 2.14
Difference0.240.390.270.030.18−0.11−0.250.000.25
95% CI0.13 to 0.330.05 to 0.77−0.14 to 0.69−0.26 to 0.32−0.14 to 0.49−0.31 to 0.1)−0.43 to –0.06−0.15 to 0.150.16 to 0.34
Men0–910–1920–2930–3940–4950–5960–6970–7980–120
EDF up to 23 September 20201.181.261.221.252.002.863.463.121.89
95% CI0.92 to 1.410.86 to 1.650.98 to 1.451 to 1.511.66 to 2.342.56 to 3.17(3.16 to 3.742.87 to 3.371.75 to 2.03
EDF up to 30 December 20201.211.291.351.432.162.553.132.952.12
95% CI1.03 to 1.41 to 1.611.15 to 1.571.23 to 1.651.91 to 2.422.32 to 2.782.92 to 3.342.76 to 3.142 to 2.23
Difference0.040.030.130.180.16−0.31−0.32−0.170.23
95% CI−0.12 to 0.2−0.23 to 0.3−0.04 to 0.30 to 0.37−0.05 to 0.38−0.49 to –0.13−0.5 to –0.15−0.32 to –0.010.13 to 0.34
  • Excess death factor (EDF) is the ratio of observed deaths over expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19. Bootstrap 95% CIs provide the uncertainty of the estimates. All numbers have been rounded to two digits. Values in bold and italics indicate statistical significant increases and decreases, respectively.