Table 2

Estimated number of patient visits lost during the COVID-19 pandemic (totals from April to December 2020) by quarter of 2020, Mexican Institute of Social Security

Indicator2020 quarterObservedPredictedEstimated difference95% CI
Contraceptives services247 999107 94859 94957 426 to 62 471
357 350115 89558 54555 824 to 61 266
466 87198 48331 61229 263 to 33 960
Antenatal care visits2583 568808 920225 352207 230 to 243 474
3610 712840 821230 109211 477 to 248 741
4573 812782 503208 691190 957 to 226 425
Deliveries278 23588 03698017712 to 11 890
378 67398 72820 05517 587 to 22 523
477 98697 30519 31916 980 to 21 659
Sick child visits2675622 00515 24914 884 to 15 613
3783219 66111 82911 497 to 12 160
410 0457368−2677*−2 to 921 to −2 to 432
Vaccinations2136 807230 26093 45388 237 to 98 670
3172 567206 96434 39729 657 to 39 138
4134 388186 60852 22047 436 to 57 004
Cervical cancer screening2192 674602 223409 549392 342 to 426 756
3219 634620 586400 952383 037 to 418 867
4350 456590 371239 915219 317 to 260 512
Breast cancer screening259 630231 645172 015165 341 to 178 688
363 664269 346205 682197 873 to 213 491
4146 378256 834110 456102 127 to 118 786
Diabetes visits22 645 1774 032 6251 387 4491 303 950 to 1 470 947
32 711 4354 237 6371 526 2021 438 732 to 1 613 671
42 980 1064 220 8911 240 7851 152 722 to 1 328 848
Hypertension visits22 471 3193 629 8641 158 5451 084 292 to 1 232 797
33 197 0363 851 904654 868575 742 to 733 994
43 476 7413 638 847162 10688 269 to 235 943
  • Quarter 2 is April to June 2020, quarter 3 is July to September 2020 and quarter 4 is October to December 2020. Total predicted is the sum of predicted visits from GEE models based on pre-COVID-19 months and adjusted for seasonality. Indicator definitions are in online supplemental materials.

  • *The negative estimated difference in sick child visits for quarter 4 of 2020 is due to observed visits in the fourth quarter surpassing predicted visits.

  • GEE, generalised estimating equation.