Table 1

Fixed parameters

Embedded ImageIncubation period (days)5.2 (95% CI 4.1 to 7.0)Lognormal45
Embedded ImagePresymptomatic infectious period (days)2.3 (95% CI 0.8 to 3.8)Gaussian18 46
Embedded ImageLatent period (days)Embedded Image
(Maximum=0.5 days)
Embedded ImageSymptomatic infectious period (days)7---18 47
Embedded ImageAsymptomatic infectious period (days)7---18 47
Embedded ImageTime from symptom onset to requiring hospitalisation (days)7 (IQR: 4–8)Gamma48
Embedded ImageTime from symptoms onset to death (critical cases, days)10 (IQR: 6–12)Gamma48
Embedded ImageTime from requiring hospitalisation to recovery/death (days)10 (IQR: 7–14)Gamma48
fProbability an infectious individual is symptomatic0.84 (95% CI 0.8 to 0.88)Gamma49
σIndicator of whether hospitalised recover or dieEmbedded Image---Assumed
  • See online supplemental material for details.