Table 1
Fixed parameters
| Parameter | Description | Value | Distribution | Reference |
 | Incubation period (days) | 5.2 (95% CI 4.1 to 7.0) | Lognormal | 45 |
 | Presymptomatic infectious period (days) | 2.3 (95% CI 0.8 to 3.8) | Gaussian | 18 46 |
 | Latent period (days) |  (Maximum=0.5 days) | Derived | |
 | Symptomatic infectious period (days) | 7 | --- | 18 47 |
 | Asymptomatic infectious period (days) | 7 | --- | 18 47 |
 | Time from symptom onset to requiring hospitalisation (days) | 7 (IQR: 4–8) | Gamma | 48 |
 | Time from symptoms onset to death (critical cases, days) | 10 (IQR: 6–12) | Gamma | 48 |
 | Time from requiring hospitalisation to recovery/death (days) | 10 (IQR: 7–14) | Gamma | 48 |
| f | Probability an infectious individual is symptomatic | 0.84 (95% CI 0.8 to 0.88) | Gamma | 49 |
| σ | Indicator of whether hospitalised recover or die |  | --- | Assumed |
See online supplemental material for details.