Table 4

Effects of disregarding the restrictive BCG vial-opening policy in Guinea-Bissau—sensitivity analyses

Restrictive (baseline) scenarioNon-restrictive scenarioAbsolute differencesPercentage change*
Median (95% uncertainty range)Median (95% uncertainty range)Median (95% uncertainty range)Median (95% uncertainty range)
TB-specific effects
Total no of paediatric TB deaths - main analysis33 (13 to 89)29 (11 to 79)−4 (−15 to 0)−11.0% (−28.8% to −0.5%)
Sensitivity to BCG mode of action model structure
Total no of paediatric TB deaths—all-or-nothing BCG effectiveness33 (13 to 89)29 (11 to 79)−4 (−15 to 0)−11.0% (−28.8% to −0.5%)
Sensitivity to calibration data
Total no of paediatric TB deaths—WHO† and Jenkins‡ data231 (196 to 272)204 (156 to 252)−25 (−68 to −1)−11.0% (−28.8% to −0.5%)
Total no of paediatric TB deaths—P. Dodd§ data238 (110 to 519)209 (94 to 463)−25 (−94 to −1)−11.0% (−28.8% to −0.5%)
All-cause effects
Total no of all-cause deaths day—main analysis day 0–18264820 (4309 to 5425)4429 (3920 to 5028)−392 (−624 to −158)−8.1% (−12.7% to −3.3%)
Subanalysis limiting follow-up to scheduled age of next vaccination
Total no of all-cause deaths day 0–421922 (1612 to 2318)1648 (1352 to 2028)−277 (−415 to −120)−14.5% (−20.7% to −6.3%)
Subanalysis excluding day 0
Total no of all-cause deaths day 1–18263838 (3417 to 4345)3621 (3208 to 4112)−216 (−373 to −80)−5.6% (−9.5% to −2.1%)
  • *Percentage change comparing the non-restrictive scenario with the restrictive scenario.

  • †WHO.31

  • ‡Jenkins HE et al 32

  • §Dodd PJ et al 5

  • TB, tuberculosis.