Table 2

Effects of disregarding the restrictive BCG vial-opening policy in Guinea-Bissau

Restrictive (baseline) scenarioNon-restrictive scenarioAbsolute changePercentage change
Median
(95% uncertainty range)
Median
(95% uncertainty range)
Median
(95% uncertainty range)
Median
(95% uncertainty range)
TB-specific effects
Total no of paediatric TB deaths33 (13 to 89)29 (11 to 79)−4 (−15 to 0)−11.0% (−28.8% to −0.5%)
Total no of paediatric TB cases162 (96 to 273)142 (82 to 245)−18 (−54 to −1)−11.0% (−28.8% to −0.5%)
Total no of paediatric TB hospital admissions46*41 (33 to 46)−5 (−13 to 0)−11.0% (−28.8% to −0.5%)
Sub-analysis stratifying urban and rural regions
Total no of paediatric TB deaths—urban data8 (3 to 22)8 (3 to 21)0 (−1 to 0)−2.6% (−8.3% to −0.1%)
Total no of paediatric TB deaths—rural data26 (10 to 69)21 (8 to 57)−4 (−17 to 0)−16.4% (−38.6% to −0.8%)
All-cause effects
Total no of all-cause deaths4820 (4309 to 5425)4429 (3920 to 5028)−392 (−624 to −158)−8.1% (−12.7% to −3.3%)
Total no of all-cause hospital admissions5926 (5538 to 6346)5940 (5532 to 6380)18 (−125 to 133)0.4% (−2.6% to 2.8%)
Subanalysis stratifying urban and rural regions
Total no of all-cause deaths urban data1071 (897 to 1302)961 (795 to 1180)−111 (−172 to -47)−10.4% (−15.3% to −4.5%)
Total no of all-cause deaths rural data3787 (3303 to 4386)3467 (2992 to 4048)−319 (−527 to −124)−8.4% (−13.5% to −3.3%)
  • *The number of paediatric TB hospital admissions is the reported number of TB cases from Guinea-Bissau in 2017 (Programa Nacional de Luta contra a Tuberculose. Relatório anualde tuberculose 2017: Ministério da Saúde Publica da Guiné-Bissau, 2018).

  • TB, tuberculosis.