Restrictive (baseline) scenario | Non-restrictive scenario | |
No of children born in health facilities | 33 354 | 33 354 |
No of children BCG-vaccinated at birth | 13 438 | 33 354 |
No of children not BCG-vaccinated at birth | 55 774 | 35 858 |
BCG coverage at 12 months of age | 93 % | 99 % |
Total household costs of seeking BCG vaccination | US$134 631 | US$68 694 |
Total BCG vaccine costs | US$26 221 | US$279 769 |
Total injection supply costs | US$3909 | US$6640 |
TB-specific effects only | Median (95% uncertainty range) | Median (95% uncertainty range) |
No of paediatric TB deaths | 33 (13 to 89) | 29 (11 to 79) |
LYG by averted TB death | – | 195 (7 to 817) |
LYG by averted TB death—discounted | – | 95 (4 to 397) |
No of paediatric TB hospital admissions | 46* | 41 (33 to 46) |
Costs of TB hospital admissions | US$51 207 | US$45 557 |
Costs of TB hospital admissions discounted | US$47 011 | US$41 813 |
Incremental costs of disregarding the restrictive vial-opening policy (including vaccination costs, household costs and costs averted by TB hospital admissions) | – | US$184 692 |
Incremental costs of disregarding the restrictive vial-opening policy discounted | – | US$185 144 |
ICER per LYG (USD) | – | 440 (69 to 4440) |
ICER per LYG discounted (USD) | – | 911 (145 to 9142) |
ICER per TB death averted (USD) | – | 24 269 (3827 to 2 44 869) |
ICER per TB death averted discounted (USD) | – | 26 527 (4225 to 2 66 291) |
All-cause effects | Median (95% uncertainty range) | Median (95% uncertainty range) |
No of all-cause deaths | 4820 (4309 to 5425) | 4429 (3920 to 5028) |
LYG by averted all-cause deaths | – | 22 166 (8949 to 35 288) |
LYG by averted all-cause deaths—discounted | – | 10 605 (4279 to 16 896) |
No of all-cause hospital admissions | 5926 (5538 to 6346) | 5940 (5532 to 6380) |
Costs of all-cause hospital admissions | US$549 815 | US$551 478 |
Costs of all-cause hospital admissions discounted | US$508 556 | US$510 076 |
Incremental costs of disregarding the restrictive vial-opening policy (including vaccination costs, household costs and costs averted by hospital admissions) | – | US$192 005 |
Incremental costs of disregarding the restrictive vial-opening policy discounted | – | US$191 863 |
ICER per LYG (USD) | – | 4 (3 to 11) |
ICER per LYG discounted (USD) | – | 9 (5 to 23) |
ICER per all-cause death averted (USD) | – | 249 (144 to 615) |
ICER per all-cause death averted discounted (USD) | – | 259 (150 to 639) |
*The number of paediatric TB hospital admissions is the reported number of TB cases from Guinea-Bissau in 2017 (Programa Nacional de Luta contra a Tuberculose. Relatório anualde tuberculose 2017: Ministério da Saúde Publica da Guiné-Bissau, 2018).
ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; LYG, life-year gained; USD, US dollar 2017 value.