Table 1

Unadjusted and adjusted marginal average effect estimates of punitive laws on HIV service outcomes

Outcome variableSet of explanatory variablesUnadjusted marginal average effect in percentages (95% CI)*PAdjusted marginal average effect in percentages (95% CI)*P
Percentage of all people living with HIV who know their statusSame-sex non-criminalisation11.3 (4.2 to 18.3)0.0026.9 (−0.3 to 14.2)0.06
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.7 (0.1 to 3.4)0.042.9 (1.5 to 4.4)<0.001
Log of health expenditure per capita4.8 (3.0 to 6.6)<0.0015.6 (3.3 to 8.0)<0.001
Sex work non-criminalisation10.2 (−0.2 to 20.7)0.067.1 (−2.3 to 16.5)0.14
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.7 (0.1 to 3.4)0.042.7 (1.0 to 4.4)0.002
Log of health expenditure per capita4.8 (3.0 to 6.6)<0.0016.2 (4.1 to 8.3)<0.001
Drug use non-criminalisation14.2 (3.7 to 24.7)0.008−8.2 (−23.2 to 6.8)0.29
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.7 (0.1 to 3.4)0.043.0 (1.3 to 4.7)0.001
Log of health expenditure per capita4.8 (3.0 to 6.6)<0.0017.0 (4.8 to 9.2)<0.001
Criminalisation composite8.0 (3.4 to 12.6)0.0013.2 (−1.6 to 7.9)0.19
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.7 (0.1 to 3.4)0.042.5 (1.0 to 4.0)0.001
Log of health expenditure per capita4.8 (3.0 to 6.6)<0.0015.8 (3.4 to 8.1)<0.001
Discrimination protection9.7 (5.8 to 13.5)<0.00111.5 (3.6 to 19.4)0.004
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.7 (0.1 to 3.4)0.042.9 (1.4 to 4.5)<0.001
Log of health expenditure per capita4.8 (3.0 to 6.6)<0.0015.5 (3.3 to 7.8)0.001
Human rights institutions3.0 (−0.3 to 6.3)0.082.0 (−1.1 to 5.1)0.21
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.7 (0.1 to 3.4)0.043.5 (1.7 to 5.3)<0.001
Log of health expenditure per capita4.8 (3.0 to 6.6)<0.0016.6 (4.5 to 8.8)<0.001
GBV laws/policies15.9 (8.7 to 23.0)0.00111.2 (5.4 to 18.2)<0.001
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.7 (0.1 to 3.4)0.043.7 (2.1 to 5.4)<0.001
Log of health expenditure per capita4.8 (3.0 to 6.6)<0.0015.9 (4.0 to 7.9)<0.001
Percentage of all people living with HIV with suppressed viral loadSame-sex non-criminalisation8.1 (0.05 to 0.16)0.042.5 (−4.6 to 9.7)0.49
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8)0.242.0 (0.5 to 3.6)0.01
Log of health expenditure per capita6.0 (4.0 to 8.0)<0.0017.1 (4.7 to 9.5)<0.001
Sex work non-criminalisation5.9 (−4.5 to 16.4)0.271.6 (−6.9 to 10.1)0.72
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8)0.242.1 (0.4 to 3.9)0.02
Log of health expenditure per capita6.0 (4.0 to 8.0)<0.0017.1 (4.8 to 9.5)<0.001
Drug use non-criminalisation14.5 (2.7 to 26.3)0.02−12.2 (−28.8 to 4.3)0.15
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8)0.242.0 (0.2 to 3.8)0.03
Log of health expenditure per capita6.0 (4.0 to 8.0)<0.0018.1 (5.6 to 10.5)<0.001
Criminalisation composite6.1 (1.4 to 10.8)0.010.03 −4.2 to 4.3)0.99
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8)0.241.3 (−0.3 to 2.9)0.12
Log of health expenditure per capita6.0 (4.0 to 8.0)<0.0017.1 (4.7 to 9.5)<0.001
Discrimination protection10.7 (6.9 to 14.4)<0.00111.7 (4.5 to 19.0)0.002
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8)0.242.5 (0.7 to 4.3)0.005
Log of health expenditure per capita6.0 (4.0 to 8.0)<0.0016.3 (3.9 to 8.6)<0.001
Human rights institutions3.3 (−0.2 to 6.7)0.061.8 (−1.1 to 4.8)0.22
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8)0.243.1 (1.3 to 5.0)0.001
Log of health expenditure per capita6.0 (4.0 to 8.0)<0.0017.6 (5.2 to 9.9)<0.001
GBV laws/policies16.2 (9.8 to 22.6)<0.00112.1 (5.1 to 19.0)0.001
Log of 2014 HIV prevalence1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8)0.243.3 (1.6 to 4.9)<0.001
Log of health expenditure per capita6.0 (4.0 to 8.0)<0.0017.1 (5.1 to 9.1)<0.001

  • *Estimates and inferences from fractional logistic regression models with robust SEs. The adjusted model includes the policy variable, prevalence and health expenditure modelled together.

  • GBV, gender-based violence.