Impact of HIVST distribution modalities on HIV infections, life years lost due to AIDS and incremental cost (2019 US$) on the HIV programme, over 2020–2039, compared with a baseline status quo distribution of 1 million HIVST annually
| Status quo distribution | HIVST | ||||||
| Fixed point | Taxi ranks | Secondary PHC (ANC) | Secondary PHC (ART patients) | Workplace | Primary PHC | ||
| Scenario A: Distributing 1 million HIVST per year | |||||||
| New HIV infections, millions | 2.57 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.54 | 2.54 | 2.56 | 2.58 |
| HIV infections averted, thousands (%) | 14 (0.6%) | 20 (0.8%) | 28 (1.1%) | 27 (1.1%) | 9 (0.4%) | −14 (−0.6%) | |
| Life years lost due to AIDS, millions | 36.50 | 36.44 | 36.45 | 36.44 | 36.38 | 36.46 | 36.55 |
| Life years saved, thousands (%) | 63 (0.2%) | 46 (0.1%) | 57 (0.2%) | 119 (0.3%) | 40 (0.1%) | −48 (−0.1%) | |
| AIDS deaths, thousands | 1011 | 1010 | 1011 | 1010 | 1008 | 1010 | 1012 |
| Deaths averted, thousands (%) | 1.4 (0.1%) | 0.70 (0.1%) | 0.8 (0.1%) | 3.6 (0.4%) | 0.9 (0.1%) | −1.0 (−0.1%) | |
| Total cost of the HIV programme | 28.77 | 28.81 | 28.77 | 28.93 | 28.93 | 28.69 | 28.76 |
| Incremental cost, millions | 44 | 9 | 166 | 166 | −76 | −5 | |
| Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio | |||||||
| Cost/infection averted | 3092 | 438 | 5988 | 6087 | Cost-saving | Dominated | |
| Cost/life years saved | 705 | 194 | 2899 | 1394 | Cost-saving | Dominated | |
| Cost/AIDS death averted | 31 696 | 12 676 | 200 097 | 46 541 | Cost-saving | Dominated | |
| Scenario B: Distributing up to 6.7 million HIVST per year (to replace 40% of conventional HTS) | |||||||
| New HIV infections, millions | 2.54 | 2.51 | 2.52 | 2.53 | 2.46 | 2.52 | 2.58 |
| HIV infections averted, thousands (%) | 63 (2.5%) | 49 (1.9%) | 34 (1.3%) | 112 (4.3%) | 51 (2.0%) | −14 (−0.6%) | |
| Life years lost due to AIDS, millions | 36.43 | 36.29 | 36.40 | 36.43 | 36.11 | 36.34 | 36.55 |
| Life years saved, thousands (%) | 205 (0.6%) | 98 (0.3%) | 66 (0.2%) | 393 (1.1%) | 156 (0.4%) | −48 (−0.1%) | |
| AIDS deaths, thousands | 1010 | 1007 | 1010 | 1010 | 1000 | 1008 | 1012 |
| Deaths averted, thousands (%) | 4.6 (0.5%) | 1.5 (0.2%) | 1.0 (0.1%) | 11.1 (1.1%) | 3.2 (0.3%) | −1.0 (−0.1%) | |
| Total cost of the HIV programme, billions | 29.10 | 29.31 | 28.96 | 29.01 | 30.40 | 28.71 | 29.02 |
| Incremental cost, millions | 544 | 198 | 240 | 1638 | −52 | 250 | |
| Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio | |||||||
| Cost/infection averted | 8636 | 4019 | 7151 | 14 688 | Cost-saving | Dominated | |
| Cost/life years saved | 2651 | 2030 | 3639 | 4162 | Cost-saving | Dominated | |
| Cost/AIDS death averted | 119 315 | 129 359 | 251 141 | 147 396 | Cost-saving | Dominated | |
ANC, antenatal care; ART, antiretroviral therapy; HIVST, HIV self-testing; HTS, HIV testing services; PHC, primary healthcare.