Estimates of baseline, epidemic-period and excess burials across Aden governorate, by analysis approach
| Statistic | Case-based analysis 1 April to 6 July 2020 | GAMLSS model Estimate (95% CI) | ||
| Smooth spline | Linear | 1 April to 6 July 2020 | 1 April to 19 September 2020 | |
| Baseline (counterfactual) burial rate (per 1000 person-years) | 3.61 | 3.58 | 2.73 (2.57 to 2.87) | 2.78 (2.60 to 2.96) |
| Total burials | 2309 | 2420 | 2320 (1904 to 2735) | 3424 (1554 to 5600) |
| Excess burial rate (per 1000 person-years) | 5.41 | 5.82 | 6.24 (5.02 to 7.78) | 4.65 (0.93 to 9.08) |
| Excess burials | 1451 | 1560 | 1598 (1285 to 1990) | 2120 (424 to 4137) |
GAMLSS, generalised additive model for location, scale and shape.