Table 4

The performance of the SIBs for NCDs

Social impact bond	Evaluator	Type of evaluation or measurement	Target outcomes	Performance	Meeting/met targets?	Completed or ongoing?
Canada’s Community Hypertension Prevention Initiative	Social Research and Demonstration	Undisclosed.	Blood pressure stabilisation Intake volume of 7000 participants over the duration of the project.40 57 80 93	In phase 1: Average 5 mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure. 90% of 500 participants who completed the programme in phase 1.57	Some long-term participant volume outcome target not measured yet.	Ongoing.
Fresno’s Asthma Impact Model (AIM4Fresno)	Ian Duncan at The University of California, Santa Barbara.94 95	Randomised control trial using Medicaid (Medi-Cal) insurance claims data.94 95	≥30% reduction in asthma-related emergency department (ED) visits ≥50% in hospitalisations.95	81% reduction in asthma-related ED visits asthma-related hospitalisations decreased by 70%.59	Yes Exceeded.	Completed.
Newcastle’s Ways to Wellness	The Institute of Health and Society at Newcastle University.62	Qualitative study using semistructured interviews.62	Improved Well-being Star40 by 1.4 points (self-management of long-term health conditions leading to greater well-being, reduced social isolation and less GP visits) Reduction in for secondary care acute costs by 22% compared with a comparison group.50	Average improvement of 3.4 points on the Well-being Star Estimated 45% lower average annual hospital cost for patients compared with the comparison group.58	Yes Exceeded.	Ongoing.
Haringey, Staffordshire and Tower Hamlets’ Mental Health Employment Partnership	Commissioning Better Outcomes Fund Evaluation, by Ecorys and Answer The Question (ATQ) Consultants.52 53	Validated administrative data.52 53	Successful engagement of 450 users (Staffordshire) job entry outcomes (<16 hours/week and >16 hours/week) for 140 (Staffordshire) Job sustainment outcomes (<16 hours/week and>16 hours/week) for 90 (Staffordshire).63	In 2016/2017 (year 1): 599 individuals were engaged 190 with severe mental illness had paid jobs 91 had a sustained job for more than 6 weeks.33 In 2017/2018, Not stated. 172 had paid jobs. Over 84 had a sustained job for more than 6 weeks, and over 40 had a sustained job for more than 6 months.61 63	Yes for Staffordshire. Undisclosed for Haringey and Tower Hamlets.	Completed.
New South Wales’ (NSW) Resolve	Urbis.41 42 96	Quasi-experimental using propensity score Matching.41 42	1. 25% cumulative reduction in health service (National Activity Weighted Units/NWAU) compared with control group.41 42	In 2018 (1st year): 1. 12% reduction in NWAUs compared with control group.41 In 2019 (2^nd year): 1. 4% cumulative reduction in NWAU compared with control group.42	No.	Ongoing. Under review for possible termination.
Hachioji’s Colorectal Cancer Screening	Tokyo Institute of Technology, Cancer Scan and University of Tokyo.56	Validated administrative data.56	Increased rate of colorectal cancer screening in residents by 19%.56 Increased rate of precision examination in residents by 87% Increased number of early cancer detection by 11.	Cancer screening rate was 26.8%.56 Corrected to 27.2%. Precision examination increased by 82.1% Under investigation.	Some.	Ongoing.
Kobe’s Preventing severe diabetic nephropathy	Institute for Future Engineering.89 97	Questionnaire and quasi-experimental methods via propensity score matching.39 46 97 98	80% rate of programme completion 75% rate of lifestyle improvement, 80% reduction of kidney function deterioration.	100% rate of programme completion 95% rate of lifestyle improvement Under investigation.	Some.	Ongoing.
Netherlands’ Cancer and Work	Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) and Tilburg University.	Undisclosed.	Undisclosed.	Undisclosed.	Undisclosed.	Ongoing.
Devon	University of the West of England.	Validated administrative data.	6 months Reductions in glycated haemoglobin (Hb1Ac) (1.2 mmol); waist size (2 cm); weight (2 kg reduction) 12 months Reductions in glycated haemoglobin (Hb1Ac) (2.4 mmol fall from baseline); waist size (4 cm fall from baseline); weight (3 kg fall from baseline) 24 months Reductions in glycated haemoglobin (Hb1Ac) (1.2 mmol less than baseline measure); waist size (1 cm smaller than baseline); weight (1.5 kg less than baseline).99	Undisclosed.	Undisclosed.	Ongoing.
Israel	Social Finance Israel will ‘perform in-depth data analytics’.100	Undisclosed.	The no of type 2 diabetes cases averted relative to control group as determined by periodic blood glucose tests. The no of healthy states produced relative to control group	Undisclosed.	Undisclosed.	Ongoing.
Auckland	Undisclosed.	Undisclosed.	43% of people that enter employment, and the extent to which employment is sustained, compared with a success rate of 30% in other contracts the government operates.44	Undisclosed.	Undisclosed.	Ongoing.

GP, general practitioner; NCD, non-communicable disease; SIB, social impact bond.