Table 4

The performance of the SIBs for NCDs

Social impact bondEvaluatorType of evaluation or measurementTarget outcomesPerformanceMeeting/met targets?Completed or ongoing?
Canada’s Community Hypertension Prevention InitiativeSocial Research and DemonstrationUndisclosed.
  1. Blood pressure stabilisation

  2. Intake volume of 7000 participants over the duration of the project.40 57 80 93

In phase 1:
  1. Average 5 mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure.

  2. 90% of 500 participants who completed the programme in phase 1.57

long-term participant volume outcome target not measured yet.
Fresno’s Asthma Impact Model (AIM4Fresno)Ian Duncan at The University of California, Santa Barbara.94 95Randomised control trial using Medicaid (Medi-Cal) insurance claims data.94 95
  1. ≥30% reduction in asthma-related emergency department (ED) visits

  2. ≥50% in hospitalisations.95

  1. 81% reduction in asthma-related ED visits

  2. asthma-related hospitalisations decreased by 70%.59

Newcastle’s Ways to WellnessThe Institute of Health and Society at Newcastle University.62Qualitative study using semistructured interviews.62
  1. Improved Well-being Star40 by 1.4 points (self-management of long-term health conditions leading to greater well-being, reduced social isolation and less GP visits)

  2. Reduction in for secondary care acute costs by 22% compared with a comparison group.50

  1. Average improvement of 3.4 points on the Well-being Star

  2. Estimated 45% lower average annual hospital cost for patients compared with the comparison group.58

Haringey, Staffordshire and Tower Hamlets’ Mental Health Employment PartnershipCommissioning Better Outcomes Fund Evaluation, by Ecorys and Answer The Question (ATQ) Consultants.52 53Validated administrative data.52 53
  1. Successful engagement of 450 users (Staffordshire)

  2. job entry outcomes (<16 hours/week and >16 hours/week) for 140 (Staffordshire)

  3. Job sustainment outcomes (<16 hours/week and>16 hours/week) for 90 (Staffordshire).63

In 2016/2017 (year 1):
  1. 599 individuals were engaged

  2. 190 with severe mental illness had paid jobs

  3. 91 had a sustained job for more than 6 weeks.33

In 2017/2018,
  1. Not stated.

  2. 172 had paid jobs.

  3. Over 84 had a sustained job for more than 6 weeks, and over 40 had a sustained job for more than 6 months.61 63

Yes for
Undisclosed for Haringey and Tower Hamlets.
New South Wales’ (NSW) ResolveUrbis.41 42 96Quasi-experimental using propensity score
Matching.41 42
1. 25% cumulative reduction in health service (National Activity Weighted Units/NWAU) compared with control group.41 42In 2018 (1st year):
1. 12% reduction in NWAUs compared with control group.41
In 2019 (2nd year):
1. 4% cumulative reduction in NWAU compared with control group.42
Under review for possible termination.
Hachioji’s Colorectal Cancer ScreeningTokyo Institute of Technology, Cancer Scan and University of Tokyo.56Validated administrative data.56
  1. Increased rate of colorectal cancer screening in residents by 19%.56

  2. Increased rate of precision examination in residents by 87%

  3. Increased number of early cancer detection by 11.

  1. Cancer screening rate was 26.8%.56 Corrected to 27.2%.

  2. Precision examination increased by 82.1%

  3. Under investigation.

Kobe’s Preventing severe diabetic nephropathyInstitute for Future Engineering.89 97Questionnaire and quasi-experimental methods via propensity score matching.39 46 97 98
  1. 80% rate of programme completion

  2. 75% rate of lifestyle improvement,

  3. 80% reduction of kidney function deterioration.

  1. 100% rate of programme completion

  2. 95% rate of lifestyle improvement

  3. Under investigation.

Netherlands’ Cancer and WorkOrganisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) and Tilburg University.Undisclosed.Undisclosed.Undisclosed.Undisclosed.Ongoing.
DevonUniversity of the West of England.Validated administrative data.6 months
Reductions in glycated haemoglobin (Hb1Ac) (1.2 mmol); waist size (2 cm); weight (2 kg reduction)
12 months
Reductions in glycated haemoglobin (Hb1Ac) (2.4 mmol fall from baseline); waist size (4 cm fall from baseline); weight (3 kg fall from baseline)
24 months
Reductions in glycated haemoglobin (Hb1Ac) (1.2 mmol less than baseline measure); waist size (1 cm smaller than baseline); weight (1.5 kg less than baseline).99
IsraelSocial Finance Israel will ‘perform in-depth data analytics’.100Undisclosed.
  1. The no of type 2 diabetes cases averted relative to control group as determined by periodic blood glucose tests.

  2. The no of healthy states produced relative to control group

AucklandUndisclosed.Undisclosed.43% of people that enter employment, and the extent to which employment is sustained, compared with a success rate of 30% in other contracts the government operates.44Undisclosed.Undisclosed.Ongoing.
  • GP, general practitioner; NCD, non-communicable disease; SIB, social impact bond.