Number | Parameter | Mean | Variance | Description |
1 | 4 | 1 | Number of initial cases | |
2 | 1/2 | 1/256 | Proportion of non-susceptible cases | |
3 | 8 | 1 | Effective population size (millions) | |
Location | ||||
4 | 1/3 | 1/256 | Probability of going out | |
5 | 1/32 | 1/256 | Social distancing threshold | |
6 | 16/100 000 | 1/256 | Critical care capacity threshold (per capita) | |
Infection | ||||
7 | 1/2 | 1/256 | Proportion of non-infectious cases | |
8 | 4 | 1/16 | Effective number of contacts: home | |
9 | 48 | 1/16 | Effective number of contacts: work | |
10 | 1/3 | 1/16 | Transmission strength | |
11 | 1/256 | Infected period (days) | ||
12 | 1/256 | Infectious period (days) | ||
13 | 1/512 | Seropositive period (months) | ||
Symptoms | ||||
14 | 1/256 | Incubation period (days) | ||
15 | 1/32 | 1/256 | Probability of severe symptoms (eg, ARDS) | |
16 | 1/256 | Symptomatic period (days) | ||
17 | 1/256 | ARDS period (days) | ||
18 | 1/2 | 1/256 | ARDS fatality rate: hospital | |
19 | 1/8 | 1/256 | ARDS fatality rate: home | |
Testing | ||||
20 | 1/10 000 | 1 | Efficacy of tracking and tracing | |
21 | 2 | 1 | Latency of enhanced testing (months) | |
22 | 4/10 000 | 1/256 | Enhanced testing | |
23 | 4/10 000 | 1/256 | Baseline testing | |
24 | 8 | 1/16 | Selectivity of testing infected people | |
25 | 1/256 | Delay in reporting test results (days) |
(NB: prior means are for scale parameters .
ARDS, acute respiratory distress syndrome; LIST, location, infection, symptom and testing.