Table 1

Estimated change over time per geography in adjusted prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, with 95% uncertainty interval

Adjusted prevalenceEstimated change
200020052010201520202000–20102010–20202000–20052005–20102010–20152015–20202000–2020
Mid-level resistance
Angola3.90
(0.95 to 12.63)
3.86
(0.99 to 12.46)
3.86
(1.01 to 12.75)
3.90
(1.00 to 13.49)
3.99
(0.96 to 15.09)
0.00
(−2.58 to 2.31)
0.06
(−1.44 to 4.15)
–0.01
(−1.49 to 0.98)
0.00
(−1.11 to 1.33)
0.02
(−0.82 to 1.80)
0.04
(−0.62 to 2.40)
0.05
(−4.00 to 6.44)
Benin0.44
(0.06 to 2.53)
0.36
(0.05 to 1.67)
0.30
(0.05 to 1.35)
0.27
(0.04 to 1.25)
0.25
(0.03 to 1.36)
–0.10
(−1.50 to 0.13)
–0.03
(−0.41 to 0.33)
–0.06
(−1.00 to 0.05)
–0.04
(−0.51 to 0.08)
–0.02
(−0.27 to 0.13)
–0.01
(−0.15 to 0.20)
–0.13
(−1.92 to 0.44)
Burkina Faso0.14
(0.02 to 0.87)
0.16
(0.02 to 0.83)
0.19
(0.03 to 0.89)
0.24
(0.03 to 1.09)
0.31
(0.04 to 1.64)
0.03
(−0.19 to 0.26)
0.10
(−0.07 to 0.96)
0.01
(−0.12 to 0.09)
0.02
(−0.07 to 0.16)
0.04
(−0.04 to 0.31)
0.06
(−0.03 to 0.65)
0.13
(−0.25 to 1.20)
Cameroon0.39
(0.08 to 1.34)
0.40
(0.08 to 1.29)
0.42
(0.08 to 1.42)
0.46
(0.08 to 1.80)
0.52
(0.08 to 2.57)
0.02
(−0.37 to 0.48)
0.09
(−0.15 to 1.39)
0.00
(−0.23 to 0.18)
0.02
(−0.14 to 0.30)
0.03
(−0.09 to 0.51)
0.06
(−0.06 to 0.87)
0.11
(−0.50 to 1.84)
Congo0.39
(0.06 to 1.94)
2.29
(0.49 to 9.58)
13.12
(3.45 to 39.88)
49.66
(18.36 to 81.96)
85.84
(54.28 to 97.04)
12.69
(3.36 to 38.03)
70.20
(44.44 to 81.58)
1.89
(0.42 to 7.65)
10.75
(2.90 to 30.51)
35.8
(14.40 to 49.85)
34.58
(14.48 to 45.81)
85.33
(54.01 to 95.91)
Democratic Republic of the Congo16.11
(1.72 to 68.26)
16.10
(1.73 to 68.09)
16.19
(1.76 to 68.59)
16.42
(1.77 to 69.33)
16.71
(1.77 to 70.89)
0.03
(−6.50 to 6.88)
0.12
(−4.59 to 8.99)
0.01
(−3.56 to 3.18)
0.03
(−3.00 to 3.69)
0.05
(−2.51 to 4.21)
0.07
(−2.15 to 4.69)
0.14
(−10.94 to 15.51)
Equatorial Guinea1.26
(0.23 to 6.92)
2.82
(0.67 to 12.20)
6.58
(1.77 to 22.33)
15.18
(4.15 to 40.54)
30.58
(8.28 to 66.34)
5.18
(1.35 to 15.99)
23.29
(5.46 to 49.58)
1.50
(0.38 to 5.31)
3.67
(0.94 to 10.79)
8.21 (1.96 to 20.31)14.84
(3.33 to 31.24)
28.90
(7.24 to 62.50)
Ethiopia92.00
(47.28 to 99.33)
91.55
(46.84 to 99.26)
90.88
(44.89 to 99.22)
90.17
(42.06 to 99.17)
89.41
(37.59 to 99.14)
–0.33
(−10.81 to 3.21)
–0.53
(−17.18 to 2.33)
–0.14
(−4.72 to 1.78)
–0.19
(−6.15 to 1.48)
–0.24
(–7.94 to 1.24)
–0.29
(–9.22 to 1.10)
–0.87
(–28.19 to 5.38)
Gabon1.79
(0.24 to 10.56)
1.81
(0.25 to 10.36)
1.85
(0.25 to 10.55)
1.93
(0.24 to 11.39)
2.04
(0.24 to 13.06)
0.01
(−1.61 to 1.83)
0.08
(−0.87 to 3.72)
0.00
(−0.93 to 0.76)
0.01
(−0.68 to 1.07)
0.03
(−0.50 to 1.54)
0.05
(−0.39 to 2.18)
0.09
(−2.39 to 5.50)
Ghana1.15
(0.23 to 5.10)
1.14
(0.24 to 4.82)
1.15 (0.25 to 4.92)1.19
(0.25 to 5.29)
1.25
(0.24 to 5.97)
0.00
(−1.08 to 0.85)
0.05
(−0.52 to 1.79)
–0.01
(−0.64 to 0.36)
0.00
(−0.44 to 0.50)
0.02
(−0.30 to 0.73)
0.04
(−0.22 to 1.08)
0.04
(−1.56 to 2.55)
Kenya61.81
(25.84 to 87.99)
88.49
(62.02 to 97.24)
91.64 (69.92 to 98.05)75.81 (38.91 to 93.87)23.06 (3.20 to 70.30)29.69 (9.98 to 45.21)–65.69
(–85.56 to –25.46)
26.55
(9.16 to 38.30)
3.04
(0.67 to 8.56)
–15.37
(–34.33 to –3.77)
–47.83
(–65.77 to –19.88)
–34.07
(–60.86 to –4.90)
Malawi90.48
(57.19 to 98.44)
96.13 (77.95 to 99.41)99.15 (94.22 to 99.87)99.85 (98.87 to 99.98)99.96 (99.58 to 100.00)8.66
(1.43 to 36.82)
0.80
(0.12 to 5.44)
5.58
(0.92 to 20.72)
3.01
(0.46 to 16.34)
0.69
(0.10 to 4.71)
0.10
(0.01 to 0.77)
9.48
(1.55 to 42.36)
Mali0.33
(0.05 to 1.98)
0.69
(0.12 to 3.04)
1.56 (0.27 to 5.45)3.53 (0.55 to 11.34)7.51
(1.01 to 26.37)
1.16
(0.17 to 3.83)
5.74
(0.59 to 22.36)
0.34
(0.05 to 1.19)
0.81
(0.11 to 2.63)
1.85
(0.22 to 6.49)
3.87
(0.36 to 15.86)
7.01
(0.81 to 25.55)
Mozambique19.12
(2.68 to 64.17)
34.69
(5.87 to 79.82)
68.94
(20.76 to 94.41)
87.57 (46.39 to 98.25)89.42 (45.54 to 98.89)45.68 (16.83 to 54.28)17.60
(−1.98 to 46.39)
14.62
(3.05 to 23.22)
30.62
(11.11 to 37.20)
17.83
(3.58 to 33.29)
1.46
(−15.47 to 14.23)
64.49
(28.04 to 81.14)
Nigeria15.81
(0.96 to 73.03)
7.17
(0.46 to 46.39)
3.18 (0.20 to 26.05)1.45 (0.08 to 14.95)0.72 (0.03 to 10.06)–11.79
(−53.07 to –0.58)
–2.17
(−16.79 to –0.10)
–8.04
(−32.51 to –0.38)
–3.67
(−22.41 to –0.19)
–1.53
(−11.52 to –0.08)
–0.62
(−5.52 to –0.02)
–14.35
(−67.45 to –0.71)
Senegal0.15
(0.02 to 0.72)
0.16
(0.03 to 0.67)
0.17 (0.03 to 0.70)0.20 (0.03 to 0.89)0.24
(0.04 to 1.42)
0.01 (−0.22 to 0.23)0.06
(−0.08 to 0.85)
0.00
(−0.14 to 0.08)
0.01
(−0.08 to 0.15)
0.02
(−0.05 to 0.29)
0.04
(−0.03 to 0.56)
0.07
(−0.30 to 1.07)
South Africa17.79
(3.58 to 58.58)
18.29 (3.75 to 59.83)18.84 (3.82 to 61.48)19.42 (3.85 to 64.46)19.90 (3.81 to 67.97)0.32
(−4.26 to 12.35)
0.36
(−3.61 to 14.44)
0.15
(−2.28 to 5.72)
0.17
(−2.04 to 6.58)
0.18
(−1.86 to 7.09)
0.18
(−1.76 to 7.28)
0.69
(−7.67 to 26.47)
Sudan18.89
(3.99 to 56.68)
82.06
(45.43 to 96.32)
77.99
(40.36 to 95.36)
16.96
(3.20 to 58.22)
0.68
(0.03 to 12.22)
55.37
(31.30 to 65.21)
–75.99
(−92.57 to –39.60)
59.53
(34.18 to 67.89)
–3.45
(−10.45 to 1.09)
–56.12
(−71.59 to –29.23)
–15.94
(−49.38 to –3.12)
–17.32
(−51.71 to –3.19)
Tanzania17.47
(2.63 to 63.18)
62.63 (17.79 to 93.12)85.70
(43.77 to 98.01)
85.29
(42.71 to 97.94)
66.69
(18.86 to 94.70)
63.98
(30.70 to 69.78)
–17.36
(−37.51 to –2.56)
42.17
(14.65 to 49.00)
22.66
(4.85 to 32.14)
–0.31
(−3.58 to 2.07)
–17.25
(−34.76 to –2.81)
44.05
(14.96 to 59.44)
The Gambia0.18
(0.01 to 4.05)
0.18
(0.01 to 4.08)
0.19
(0.01 to 4.39)
0.21
(0.01 to 4.83)
0.24
(0.01 to 5.80)
0.00
(−0.41 to 0.64)
0.03
(−0.18 to 1.67)
0.00
(−0.25 to 0.25)
0.00
(−0.16 to 0.39)
0.01
(−0.11 to 0.63)
0.02
(−0.07 to 1.03)
0.03
(−0.57 to 2.27)
Uganda85.97
(46.42 to 98.11)
91.79
(61.04 to 98.92)
94.34
(70.08 to 99.28)
94.24
(69.79 to 99.28)
91.65
(57.67 to 98.99)
8.26
(1.15 to 24.04)
–2.10
(−17.24 to 1.59)
5.66
(0.80 to 15.82)
2.51
(0.34 to 9.04)
–0.03
(−2.65 to 2.13)
–2.23
(−14.85 to 0.20)
4.81
(−1.78 to 18.96)
Zambia51.37
(13.93 to 88.08)
51.47
(14.14 to 88.02)
51.28
(14.07 to 88.07)
51.40
(13.90 to 88.21)
51.45
(13.64 to 88.46)
0.01
(−7.21 to 7.81)
0.01
(−7.36 to 7.69)
0.01
(−3.67 to 3.92)
0.01
(−3.64 to 3.90)
0.01
(−3.67 to 3.88)
0.01
(−3.73 to 3.84)
0.03
(−14.15 to 15.21)
High-level resistance
Equatorial Guinea99.97
(99.84 to 100.00)
98.55
(94.91 to 99.66)
55.94
(27.75 to 80.24)
2.36
(0.65 to 7.15)
0.05
(0.01 to 0.21)
–44.03
(−72.12 to 19.75)
–55.87
(−80.13 to 27.73)
–1.42
(−4.93 to –0.33)
–42.52
(−67.40 to –19.34)
–53.46
(−73.71 to 27.02)
–2.30
(−6.92 to 0.64)
–99.91
(−99.97 to 99.69)
Gabon0.22
(0.01 to 1.76)
0.21
(0.01 to 1.64)
0.22
(0.01 to 1.77)
0.24 (0.01 to 2.12)0.28
(0.01 to 2.94)
0.00
(−0.48 to 0.47)
0.03
(−0.18 to 1.40)
0.00
(−0.30 to 0.18)
0.00
(−0.18 to 0.30)
0.01
(−0.11 to 0.50)
0.02
(−0.07 to 0.88)
0.03
(−0.64 to 1.86)
Kenya0.23
(0.03 to 1.11)
0.47
(0.09 to 1.73)
1.03
(0.22 to 3.41)
2.30 (0.45 to 8.49)5.02 (0.79 to 25.76)0.75
(0.12 to 2.53)
3.91
(0.38 to 23.13)
0.22
(0.04 to 0.74)
0.52
(0.08 to 1.83)
1.21
(0.15 to 5.69)
2.68
(0.23 to 17.35)
4.71
(0.53 to 25.43)
Malawi0.92
(0.19 to 4.25)
1.45
(0.30 to 6.19)
2.40
(0.50 to 9.34)
3.99
(0.80 to 14.76)
6.53 (1.26 to 23.64)1.42
(0.26 to 5.41)
4.03
(0.65 to 14.69)
0.51
(0.10 to 2.02)
0.90
(0.17 to 3.39)
1.53
(0.26 to 5.62)
2.49
(0.38 to 9.08)
5.48
(0.95 to 19.98)
Mozambique0.02
(0.00 to 0.20)
0.02
(0.00 to 0.17)
0.02
(0.00 to 0.18)
0.02
(0.00 to 0.24)
0.02 (0.00 to 0.37)0.00 (−0.07 to 0.05)0.00 (−0.02 to 0.20)0.00 (−0.04 to 0.02)0.00 (−0.02 to 0.03)0.00 (−0.01 to 0.07)0.00 (−0.01 to 0.13)0.00 (−0.08 to 0.25)
Nigeria4.66
(0.11 to 67.78)
4.65
(0.12 to 67.22)
4.77
(0.13 to 67.03)
4.97
(0.14 to 67.33)
5.25 (0.14 to 68.74)0.01 (−6.66 to 6.03)0.10 (−4.42 to 9.41)0.00 (−3.68 to 2.60)0.01 (−2.99 to 3.37)0.04 (−2.44 to 4.23)0.07 (−1.98 to 5.24)0.09 (−10.88 to 15.33)
Senegal0.24
(0.02 to 1.79)
0.23
(0.02 to 1.55)
0.24
(0.02 to 1.54)
0.26
(0.03 to 1.74)
0.31 (0.03 to 2.23)0.00 (−0.56 to 0.33)0.04 (−0.20 to 0.99)0.00 (−0.35 to 0.12)0.00 (−0.21 to 0.21)0.01 (−0.13 to 0.36)0.03 (−0.08 to 0.64)0.04
(−0.75 to 1.30)
Tanzania0.15
(0.00 to 5.14)
0.41
(0.01 to 13.15)
0.92
(0.03 to 25.09)
1.60
(0.05 to 36.90)
2.12 (0.06 to 44.54)0.78
(0.02 to 20.19)
1.08
(0.01 to 19.68)
0.26
(0.01 to 8.05)
0.51
(0.01 to 12.07)
0.65
(0.02 to 11.27)
0.39 (−0.45 to 9.03)1.96
(0.05 to 39.23)
Uganda16.29
(2.43 to 61.95)
15.88
(2.37 to 61.16)
15.55 (2.31 to 60.44)15.20
(2.26 to 59.95)
14.96 (2.18 to 59.88)–0.25
(−6.92 to 3.10)
–0.17
(−5.74 to 3.64)
–0.13
(−3.63 to 1.53)
–0.12
(−3.34 to 1.60)
–0.10
(−3.06 to 1.75)
–0.07
(−2.74 to 1.93)
–0.43
(−12.54 to 6.54)
Zambia5.44
(0.40 to 50.48)
5.64
(0.45 to 50.03)
5.98
(0.49 to 50.31)
6.52
(0.53 to 51.47)
7.09
(0.56 to 53.59)
0.15
(−4.34 to 6.43)
0.37
(−2.79 to 11.35)
0.05
(−2.34 to 2.71)
0.10 (−1.94 to 3.65)0.15 (−1.55 to 4.89)0.21 (−1.27 to 6.47)0.51 (−6.92 to 17.51)
  • The results for 2001–2004, 2006–2009, 2011–2014 and 2016–2019 are available, and can be provided upon a reasonable request. The results for 2018–2020 are predictions beyond the available data. Unadjusted quantities per country are available and can be provided upon a reasonable request. For detailed year-specific prevalence levels, see online supplemental file 3.1. Full posterior quantiles of prevalence per geography across time are provided in online supplemental file 3.2. Evidence on mid-level and high-level SP resistance is based on pfdhps540E and pfdhps581G molecular markers, respectively.