Table 2

Independently estimated IFRs and predicted IFRs adjusted by health system capacity

SamplingLocationIncome groupIndependently estimated IFRPredicted IFRSamplingLocationIncome groupIndependently estimated IFRPredicted IFR
RandomSwedenHIC0.87%0.98%Blood donorsThe NetherlandsHIC0.98%0.93%
RandomBelgiumHIC1.48%0.96%Blood donorsDenmarkHIC0.57%0.94%
RandomIcelandHIC0.46%0.73%FacebookSanta Clara, USAHIC0.18%0.79%
RandomSwitzerlandHIC0.73%0.92%ShoppersNew York State, USAHIC0.68%0.79%
RandomSpainHIC1.15%0.99%ShoppersNew York City, USAHIC0.61%0.79%
RandomBrazilUMIC1.00%0.80%SIRFranceHIC0.80%0.97%
Random, localBrazil, Rio Grande do SulUMIC0.83%0.80%Adjusted CFRUSAHIC1.30%0.79%
Random, localIndiana, USAHIC0.58%0.79%Adjusted CFRUKHIC1.00%0.91%
Random, localIranUMIC0.41%0.65%Adjusted CFRBeijing, ChinaUMIC1.15%0.88%
Random, localGermanyHIC0.36%1.13%Adjusted CFRItalyHIC1.60%1.15%
Blood donorsCzech RepublicHIC0.68%0.87%TravellersJapanHIC0.45%1.31%
Blood donorsSloveniaHIC0.16%0.95%TravellersChinaUMIC0.66%0.88%
Blood donorsSpain (2)HIC1.30%0.99%Excluding mortalityItaly (2)HIC0.95%1.15%
Blood donorsSweden (2)HIC0.63%0.98%ModelNorthern ItalyHIC1.29%1.15%
Blood donorsLuxembourgHIC0.84%0.75%ModelFrance (2)HIC0.70%0.97%
Blood donorsWuhan, ChinaUMIC0.35%0.88%PFRNew York City, USAHIC0.93%0.79%
  • The table lists all independently estimated IFRs retrieved in an internet search on July 2 and listed in Meyerowitz-Katz and Merone 17 reporting type of study, location and income region. It compares the independent results with our predicted health system-adjusted IFR.

  • CFR, case fatality rate; HIC, high-income country; IFR, infection fatality rate; PFR, population fatality rate; SIR, susceptible, infectious, recovered model; UMIC, upper middle-income country.