Table 1

Parameters of the model

First case	Ghana	Kenya	Senegal	South Korea	Source
First case	13 March 2020	14 March-20	02 March-20	20 January 2020	European CDC (2020), Senegalese Ministry of Health (2020)
Population	30.497 million	51.808 million	17.354 million	51.410 million	CountryMeters43
µ_birth	9.01E-05	9.71E-05	1.00E-04	2.51E-05	CountryMeters43
µ_death	9.01E-05	9.71E-05	1.00E-04	1.60E-05	The World Bank36
r_as	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	Nishiura et al 17
T_rec,as	14 days	14 days	14 days	14 days	Hubei: McIntosh44
T_inc	5 days	5 days	5 days	5 days	McIntosh44
T_d	6 days	6 days	6 days	6 days	McIntosh44
T_rec,ms	16 days	16 days	16 days	16 days	McIntosh44
T_sev	5 days	5 days	5 days	5 days	McIntosh44
T_rec,ss	18 days	18 days	18 days	18 days	McIntosh44
α	2	2	2	2	McIntosh44
d_ms	0.37%	0.37%	0.37%	0.03%	CountryMeters43
d_ss	2%	2%	2%	1.04%	CountryMeters43
r_ms	98.34%	98.53%	98.62%	94.33%	Verity et al 45
R _t	1.25 (1.0–1.4) if 0≤d<7 2.35 (2.2–2.7) if 7≤d<9 2.3 (1.7–2.5) if 9≤d<16 1.6 (1.0–2.2) if 16≤d	2.4 (2.2–2.6) if 0≤d<7 2.15 (1.8–2.5) if 7≤d<9 2 (1.6–2.4) if 9≤d<14 1.6 (1.0–2.2) if 14≤d	1.29 (1.1–1.48) if 0≤d<20 2.4 (2.1–2.7) if 20≤d<26 1.5 (1.0–2.00) if 26≤d	1.13 if 0≤d<30 3.02 if 30≤d<41 1.85 if 41≤d<44 0.88 if 44≤d<49 0.3 if 49≤d<59	Author’s estimates, adjusting R _t with timeline of government policies outlined in figure 2
β_ms	0.41β_as	0.41β_as	0.41β_as	0.41β_as	Author’s estimate using Wang et al 24
β_ss	β_as/T_rec,ss	β_as/T_rec,ss	β_as/T_rec,ss	β_as/T_rec,ss	Author’s estimate using Wang et al 24

R_t in parenthesis are R_t values for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively.