Table 4

Effects of alcohol taxation over 50 years

Income levelDeaths averted (000s)Years of life gained (000s)Deaths averted
(per 100 000)
Years of life gained
(per 100 000)
Change in expenditure (discounted, US$ 2018, billions)Change in tax revenue (discounted, US$ 2018, billions)
20% price increase
Low59111 6659017843798
(435 to 747)(8355 to 14 975)(64 to 110)(1225 to 2196)(15 to 59)(87 to 109)
Lower middle417998 99914033115481767
(3095 to 5262)(71 194 to 126 804)(99 to 169)(2283 to 4066)(223 to 872)(1654 to 1880)
Upper middle246070 09796273910133291
(1780 to 3141)(49 382 to 90 812)(67 to 118)(1850 to 3403)(404 to 1623)(3079 to 3503)
High153646 661130395413604272
(1085 to 1987)(32 295 to 61 026)(88 to 161)(2624 to 4958)(556 to 2163)(3983 to 4561)
Global8766227 421119308029589428
(6395 to 11 136)(161 226 to 293 617)(83 to 145)(2094 to 3813)(1198 to 4718)(8803 to 10 053)
50% price increase
Low143128 139210412620174
(1059 to 1803)(20 300 to 35 978)(155 to 264)(2977 to 5276)(−48 to 87)(133 to 214)
Lower middle10 101237 98132476312933353
(7527 to 12 674)(172 499 to 303 463)(241 to 406)(5532 to 9731)(−710 to 1297)(2883 to 3823)
Upper middle5957169 07722363355206229
(4337 to 7577)(120 008 to 218 147)(163 to 284)(4497 to 8174)(−1363 to 2404)(5347 to 7110)
High3687111 54830090627168022
(2625 to 4749)(77 949 to 145 146)(213 to 386)(6333 to 11 792)(−1780 to 3212)(6825 to 9220)
Global21 176546 7452757101154917 778
(15 548 to 26 804)(390 755 to 702 735)(202 to 348)(5075 to 9126)(−3902 to 6999)(15 188 to 20 367)
  • Uniform price increase across all beverages, no substitution assumed. Uncertainty interval (95%) in parentheses. Discount rate of 3% is assumed for economic outcomes.