Table 3

Effects of tobacco taxation over 50 years

Income levelDeaths averted (000s)Years of life gained (000s)Deaths averted
(per 100 000)
Years of life gained
(per 100 000)
Change in expenditure (discounted, US$ 2018, billions)Change in tax revenue (discounted, US$ 2018, billions)
20% price increase
Low72212 0071101836927
(440 to 1004)(7224 to 16 790)(67 to 153)(1105 to 2568)(3 to 15)(23 to 29)
Lower middle368664 8811232170147277
(2235 to 5137)(38 922 to 90 840)(75 to 172)(1302 to 3038)(70 to 205)(213 to 306)
Upper middle353569 3731382711427857
(2135 to 4934)(41 610 to 97 135)(83 to 193)(1626 to 3796)(189 to 658)(690 to 1013)
High73914 474631226556826
(438 to 1040)(8556 to 20 391)(37 to 88)(725 to 1728)(374 to 727)(688 to 949)
Global8682160 734118217711391987
(5249 to 12 115)(96 312 to 225 157)(71 to 164)(1305 to 3050)(636 to 1606)(1613 to 2297)
50% price increase
Low180530 0182764591749
(1101 to 2509)(18 061 to 41 976)(168 to 384)(2762 to 6420)(−10 to 24)(36 to 58)
Lower middle9215162 2023085425188497
(5587 to 12 844)(97 304 to 227 100)(187 to 430)(3254 to 7595)(−11 to 364)(325 to 606)
Upper middle8836173 43234567784811506
(5339 to 12 334)(104 025 to 242 839)(209 to 482)(4065 to 9490)(−172 to 1127)(1009 to 1982)
High184836 18415730669241573
(1096 to 2600)(21 390 to 50 978)(93 to 220)(1812 to 4319)(414 to 1417)(1164 to 1953)
Global21 705401 836294544316013625
(13 123 to 30 287)(240 779 to 562 892)(178 to 410)(3261 to 7624)(220 to 2933)(2534 to 4599)
  • Uncertainty interval (95%) in parentheses. Discount rate of 3% is assumed for economic outcomes.