Effects of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation over 50 years
Income level | Deaths averted (000s) | Years of life gained (000s) | Deaths averted (per 100 000) | Years of life gained (per 100 000) | Change in expenditure (discounted, US$ 2018, billions) | Change in tax revenue (discounted, US$ 2018, billions) |
20% price increase | ||||||
Low | 68 | 1831 | 10 | 268 | −32 | 55 |
(39 to 104) | (1173 to 2666) | (6 to 15) | (172 to 391) | (−51 to −12) | (51 to 58) | |
Lower middle | 347 | 8655 | 11 | 278 | −143 | 247 |
(216 to 511) | (5580 to 12 586) | (7 to 16) | (179 to 404) | (−232 to −54) | (232 to 262) | |
Upper middle | 315 | 8993 | 12 | 337 | −130 | 225 |
(201 to 466) | (5799 to 13 019) | (8 to 17) | (217 to 488) | (−211 to −49) | (212 to 239) | |
High | 143 | 4876 | 12 | 396 | −114 | 197 |
(87 to 214) | (3132 to 7087) | (7 to 17) | (254 to 576) | (−184 to −43) | (185 to 208) | |
Global | 873 | 24 355 | 11 | 316 | −419 | 724 |
(544 to 1295) | (15 684 to 35 358) | (7 to 17) | (204 to 459) | (−679 to −158) | (680 to 767) | |
50% price increase | ||||||
Low | 188 | 4519 | 28 | 663 | −144 | 72 |
(116 to 281) | (2920 to 6549) | (17 to 41) | (428 to 960) | (−205 to −82) | (51 to 92) | |
Lower middle | 872 | 21 354 | 28 | 685 | −650 | 325 |
(558 to 1282) | (13 823 to 30 929) | (18 to 41) | (443 to 992) | (−927 to −372) | (232 to 417) | |
Upper middle | 796 | 21 863 | 30 | 819 | −593 | 297 |
(510 to 1161) | (14 224 to 31 427) | (19 to 44) | (533 to 1178) | (−847 to −339) | (212 to 381) | |
High | 377 | 12 026 | 31 | 977 | −517 | 259 |
(235 to 556) | (7766 to 17 382) | (19 to 45) | (631 to 1412) | (−739 to −296) | (185 to 333) | |
Global | 2234 | 59 762 | 29 | 776 | −1903 | 952 |
(1419 to 3281) | (38 732 to 86 287) | (18 to 43) | (503 to 1121) | (-2717 to −1090) | (681 to 1224) |
A 50% offset factor is assumed. Uncertainty interval (95%) in parentheses. Discount rate of 3% is assumed for economic outcomes.