Table 5

Effects of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation over 50 years

Income levelDeaths averted (000s)Years of life gained (000s)Deaths averted
(per 100 000)
Years of life gained
(per 100 000)
Change in expenditure (discounted, US$ 2018, billions)Change in tax revenue (discounted, US$ 2018, billions)
20% price increase
Low68183110268−3255
(39 to 104)(1173 to 2666)(6 to 15)(172 to 391)(−51 to −12)(51 to 58)
Lower middle347865511278−143247
(216 to 511)(5580 to 12 586)(7 to 16)(179 to 404)(−232 to −54)(232 to 262)
Upper middle315899312337−130225
(201 to 466)(5799 to 13 019)(8 to 17)(217 to 488)(−211 to −49)(212 to 239)
High143487612396−114197
(87 to 214)(3132 to 7087)(7 to 17)(254 to 576)(−184 to −43)(185 to 208)
Global87324 35511316−419724
(544 to 1295)(15 684 to 35 358)(7 to 17)(204 to 459)(−679 to −158)(680 to 767)
50% price increase
Low188451928663−14472
(116 to 281)(2920 to 6549)(17 to 41)(428 to 960)(−205 to −82)(51 to 92)
Lower middle87221 35428685−650325
(558 to 1282)(13 823 to 30 929)(18 to 41)(443 to 992)(−927 to −372)(232 to 417)
Upper middle79621 86330819−593297
(510 to 1161)(14 224 to 31 427)(19 to 44)(533 to 1178)(−847 to −339)(212 to 381)
High37712 02631977−517259
(235 to 556)(7766 to 17 382)(19 to 45)(631 to 1412)(−739 to −296)(185 to 333)
Global223459 76229776−1903952
(1419 to 3281)(38 732 to 86 287)(18 to 43)(503 to 1121)(-2717 to −1090)(681 to 1224)
  • A 50% offset factor is assumed. Uncertainty interval (95%) in parentheses. Discount rate of 3% is assumed for economic outcomes.