Table 1

List of interventions modelled

StrengthenPrivate and non-NTP sector engagementEngage at least 80% of non-NTP providers (private sector, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and other government sector) to implement diagnostic tests, treatment regimen and adherence at the same level as in public sector over 5 years from the starting of the intervention. Similar to Public–Private Support Agency mechanisms developed in India.28
Improved programmatic diagnosticsAccelerated substitution (ultimately 80%) of smear by rapid molecular test, for NTP and engaged non-NTP providers. Involves X-ray screening followed by confirmation, with 20% receiving rapid tests without screening. This results in: (1) the probability of diagnosis per patient visit increasing to 95% in the NTP/engaged non-NTP sector, and (2) at least 80% of patients receiving drug-susceptibility test at the point of TB diagnosis.
Improved programmatic treatment cascadeIncrease treatment initiation and completion rates in NTP sector (including engaged non-NTP providers) to 95%.
AccelerateSystematic screening in risk groupsSystematic screening of identified high-risk groups using symptoms and/or X-rays followed by confirmation, at a given annual frequency.
Extended contact investigation in the general populationScreen for active TB among extended contacts, including household, social and occupational.
PreventAdoption of current WHO guidelinesFull uptake of preventive therapy with high adherence rates among those with HIV, household contacts of reported TB cases (all ages), and other clinical risk groups, for example, those with silicosis, transplantation patients, and so on.
  • The interventions are modelled in combination, added progressively in the order listed here. See published mathematical model9 for further technical details on these intervention scenarios.

  • NTP, National TB Programme; TB, tuberculosis.