Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for individual and combined predictors of neonatal death
| Development set (n=14 944)* | Validation set (n=4983)* | |||||||
| Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | |
| Individual predictors | ||||||||
| Lethargy | 54.2 | 66.9 | 2.1 | 99.1 | 44.6 | 66.5 | 1.7 | 98.9 |
| Cyanosis | 4.7 | 97.9 | 2.8 | 98.7 | 6.2 | 97.6 | 3.3 | 98.7 |
| Non-cephalic presentation | 6.3 | 98.0 | 3.9 | 98.8 | 7.7 | 98.0 | 5.0 | 98.8 |
| Poor suckling | 29.7 | 92.0 | 4.4 | 99.1 | 32.8 | 92.2 | 5.0 | 99.1 |
| Birth weight | ||||||||
| <2.5 kg | 74.1 | 58.0 | 2.2 | 99.4 | 75.4 | 58.7 | 2.4 | 99.4 |
| <2.0 kg | 48.1 | 92.7 | 7.8 | 99.3 | 49.2 | 93.2 | 8.7 | 99.3 |
| <1.5 kg | 19.0 | 99.5 | 32.7 | 99.0 | 24.6 | 99.5 | 39.0 | 99.0 |
| Gestational age | ||||||||
| <37 weeks | 54.1 | 80.9 | 3.6 | 99.3 | 51.7 | 80.8 | 3.2 | 99.3 |
| Predictor combinations | ||||||||
| ≥1 of lethargy, cyanosis or non-cephalic presentation or trouble suckling | 65.3 | 60.8 | 2.1 | 99.3 | 61.5 | 60.4 | 2.0 | 99.2 |
| ≥1 of lethargy, cyanosis or non-cephalic presentation | 56.8 | 65.8 | 2.1 | 99.1 | 50.8 | 64.9 | 1.9 | 99.0 |
| ≥1 of lethargy, trouble suckling or birth weight <2.5 kg | 90.1 | 37.1 | 1.8 | 99.7 | 86.2 | 37.5 | 1.8 | 99.5 |
| ≥1 of lethargy or birth weight <2.5 kg | 89.1 | 39.7 | 1.9 | 99.6 | 84.6 | 40.1 | 1.8 | 99.5 |
| Lethargy and birth weight <2.5 kg | 38.6 | 85.2 | 3.3 | 99.1 | 35.4 | 85.0 | 3.0 | 99.0 |
| ≥1 of lethargy or birth weight <2.0 kg | 76.0 | 62.6 | 2.6 | 99.5 | 63.1 | 62.6 | 2.2 | 99.2 |
| Lethargy and birth weight <2.0 kg | 25.9 | 96.9 | 9.6 | 99.0 | 30.8 | 97.0 | 12.1 | 99.1 |
| ≥1 of lethargy or gestational age <37 weeks | 81.0 | 53.6 | 2.3 | 99.5 | 71.4 | 53.3 | 2.0 | 99.3 |
| ≥1 of birth weight <2.5 kg or gestational age <37 weeks | 81.4 | 49.4 | 2.1 | 99.5 | 82.5 | 49.4 | 2.1 | 99.5 |
*Missing values resulting in development and validation sets, respectively, of sizes: 14 851 and 4959 for lethargy; 14 896 and 4959 for cyanosis; 14 928 and 4981 for non-cephalic presentation; 14 791 and 4925 for trouble suckling; 14 908 and 4967 for birth weight (<2.5 kg, <2.0 kg, <1.5 kg), 14 299 and 4718 for gestational age <37 weeks; 14 729 and 4917 for ≥1 of lethargy, cyanosis, non-cephalic presentation or trouble suckling; 14 826 and 4952 for ≥1 of lethargy, cyanosis non-cephalic presentation, 14 832 and 4934 for ≥1 of lethargy, trouble suckling or birth weight <2.5 kg; 14 882 and 4956 for ≥1 of lethargy or birth weight <2.5 kg; 14 877 and 4970 for lethargy and birth weight <2.5 kg; 14 845 and 4952 for ≥1 of lethargy or birth weight <2.0 kg; 14 914 and 4974 for lethargy and birth weight <2.0 kg; 14 439 and 4831 for ≥1 of lethargy or gestational age. <37 weeks and 14 493 and 4828 for ≥1 of birth weight <2.5 kg or gestational age <37 weeks.
NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.