Table 4

Prediction models for postsecond day neonatal mortality, model discrimination and calibration

UnivariateModel 1Model 2Model 3
Total number of newborns13 93213 98514 056
Number of newborn deaths171172175
PredictorsOR (95% CI)OR (95% CI)βOR (95% CI)βOR (95% CI)β
 Birth weight, kg*
  ≤1.50.00 (0.00 to 0.02)0.01 (0.00 to 0.09)−4.4130.01 (0.00 to 0.06)−4.853
  >1.50.08 (0.06 to 0.13)0.16 (0.10 to 0.25)−1.8340.15 (0.10 to 0.23)−1.904
 Gestational age, weeks0.81 (0.78 to 0.83)0.91 (0.86 to 0.95)−0.1000.91 (0.87 to 0.95)−0.0970.82 (0.79 to 0.85)−0.203
 Lethargy2.39 (1.79 to 3.18)1.54 (1.11 to 2.14)0.4311.53 (1.11 to 2.12)0.4261.95 (1.43 to 2.66)0.668
 Cyanosis2.30 (1.17 to 4.53)1.41 (0.62 to 3.21)0.3401.39 (0.61 to 3.15)0.326
 Non-cephalic presentation3.24 (1.79 to 5.88)2.16 (1.12 to 4.17)0.7712.07 (1.08 to 3.97)0.7262.47 (1.32 to 4.61)0.904
 Poor suckling4.84 (3.50 to 6.69)2.64 (1.81 to 3.83)0.9692.58 (1.78 to 3.74)0.9473.98 (2.84 to 5.58)1.381
 Female sex0.99 (0.74 to 1.31)0.95 (0.69 to 1.31)−0.049
 Maternal age at urine test, years
  <18REFREF
  20–290.74 (0.54 to 1.01)1.20 (0.76 to 1.88)0.180
  >290.81 (0.52 to 1.28)1.20 (0.62 to 2.33)0.186
 Primigravidae1.73 (1.29 to 2.31)1.33 (0.85 to 2.10)0.288
 Maternal BMI <18.5 kg/m21.34 (1.01 to 1.79)1.20 (0.87 to 1.66)0.186
 Betel nut chewing0.98 (0.72 to 1.33)1.12 (0.79 to 1.60)0.116
 Tobacco chewing0.79 (0.48 to 1.29)0.71 (0.40 to 1.26)−0.344
 Husband smoking0.91 (0.68 to 1.22)0.83 (0.59 to 1.16)−0.192
 Education level
  No educationREFREF
  Class 1–40.91 (0.60 to 1.38)0.91 (0.57 to 1.47)−0.092
  Class 5–90.68 (0.49 to 0.93)0.79 (0.52 to 1.18)−0.241
  Class ≥100.53 (0.24 to 1.16)1.13 (0.45 to 2.79)0.118
 Living standards index, above median0.56 (0.41 to 0.75)0.65 (0.45 to 0.93)−0.432
 Intercept7.3107.7872.707
Discrimination and calibration
 Area under ROC curve (95% CI)
  Derivation0.81 (0.77 to 0.84)0.80 (0.76 to 0.84)0.75 (0.71 to 0.80)
  Validation0.80 (0.73 to 0.88)0.80 (0.73 to 0.87)0.74 (0.66 to 0.81)
 Hosmer Lemeshow χ2(p)
  Derivation10.61 (0.22)6.28 (0.62)10.25 (0.25)
  Validation11.59 (0.31)6.56 (0.77)10.12 (0.43)
  • *Birth weight modelled as a continuous linear spline with a knot at 1.5 kg. Both spline terms were included in the univariate analysis.