Sensitivity analyses for pass-through rate and reduction in sugar content for the extended cost-effectiveness analysis of 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in South Africa
| Total | Quintile 1 | Quintile 2 | Quintile 3 | Quintile 4 | Quintile 5 | |
| Panel A. Pass-through effect reduced to 60% | ||||||
| T2DM deaths averted* | 3233 | 518 | 650 | 748 | 757 | 559 |
| Government healthcare savings (ZAR million)* | 696 | 158 | 203 | 169 | 128 | 38 |
| Changes in annual tax revenues (ZAR million) | 5775 | 968 | 1077 | 1179 | 1253 | 1299 |
| Financial risk protection (cases of poverty averted using FPL)* | 4994 | 436 | 2335 | 2069 | 154 | 0 |
| Financial risk protection (cases of catastrophic expenditures averted)* | 13 277 | 2664 | 2926 | 3601 | 2612 | 1474 |
| Annual indirect cost savings (ZAR million) | 4.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.1 |
| Panel B. 10% reduction in sugar content | ||||||
| T2DM deaths averted* | 4642 | 687 | 951 | 1107 | 1119 | 779 |
| Government healthcare savings (ZAR million)* | 997 | 209 | 297 | 250 | 189 | 53 |
| Changes in annual tax revenues (ZAR million) | 2361 | 394 | 440 | 481 | 512 | 534 |
| Financial risk protection (cases of poverty averted using FPL)* | 7330 | 645 | 3390 | 3066 | 229 | 0 |
| Financial risk protection (cases of catastrophic expenditures averted)* | 18 990 | 3512 | 4250 | 5308 | 3860 | 2060 |
| Annual indirect cost savings (ZAR million) | 6.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| Panel C. 20% reduction in sugar content | ||||||
| T2DM deaths averted* | 7007 | 1338 | 1349 | 1563 | 1615 | 1143 |
| Government healthcare savings (ZAR million)* | 1530 | 407 | 421 | 352 | 273 | 77 |
| Changes in annual tax revenues (ZAR million) | 2842 | 473 | 528 | 579 | 617 | 646 |
| Financial risk protection (cases of poverty averted using FPL)* | 10 633 | 1204 | 4824 | 4310 | 295 | 0 |
| Financial risk protection (cases of catastrophic expenditures averted)* | 29 000 | 6878 | 6038 | 7499 | 5529 | 3056 |
| Annual indirect cost savings (ZAR million) | 11.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 7.9 |
*Estimated over 20 years.
FPL, food poverty line (ZAR321 or US$21 per capita per month); T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; ZAR, South African rand.