Table 4

Sensitivity analyses for pass-through rate and reduction in sugar content for the extended cost-effectiveness analysis of 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in South Africa

TotalQuintile 1Quintile 2Quintile 3Quintile 4Quintile 5
Panel A. Pass-through effect reduced to 60%
 T2DM deaths averted*3233518650748757559
 Government healthcare savings (ZAR million)*69615820316912838
 Changes in annual tax revenues (ZAR million)57759681077117912531299
 Financial risk protection (cases of poverty averted using FPL)*4994436233520691540
 Financial risk protection (cases of catastrophic expenditures averted)*13 27726642926360126121474
 Annual indirect cost savings (ZAR million)4.60.10.20.40.83.1
Panel B. 10% reduction in sugar content
 T2DM deaths averted*464268795111071119779
 Government healthcare savings (ZAR million)*99720929725018953
 Changes in annual tax revenues (ZAR million)2361394440481512534
 Financial risk protection (cases of poverty averted using FPL)*7330645339030662290
 Financial risk protection (cases of catastrophic expenditures averted)*18 99035124250530838602060
 Annual indirect cost savings (ZAR million)6.10.10.30.51.14.0
Panel C. 20% reduction in sugar content
 T2DM deaths averted*700713381349156316151143
 Government healthcare savings (ZAR million)*153040742135227377
 Changes in annual tax revenues (ZAR million)2842473528579617646
 Financial risk protection (cases of poverty averted using FPL)*10 6331204482443102950
 Financial risk protection (cases of catastrophic expenditures averted)*29 00068786038749955293056
 Annual indirect cost savings (ZAR million)11.90.30.61.02.17.9
  • *Estimated over 20 years.

  • FPL, food poverty line (ZAR321 or US$21 per capita per month); T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; ZAR, South African rand.