Table 1

Key model parameters used for the projection analysis

ValueSource
Initial population (2015)
Hepatitis C prevalenceMaleFemale
Antibody0.6%0.7%KHNAES20
HCV RNA0.3%0.4%12
No of people on DAAs treatmentHIRA25
201526K20K
201623K31K
Fixed parameters
Mortality from hepatitis CHCV RNAHCV antibody
 Up to CC00
 HCC0.200.2019 23
 DCC0.150.1519 23
 Liver transplant0.100.1019 21 23 24
Mortality from other causesSex-specific and age-specific estimates and projections based on World Population Prospects 201718
Incidence of hepatitis CConstant ‘thrust of infection’ parameters, implying incidence rate of 0.06% in 2015.Derived from national prevalence estimates
Spontaneous clearance0.450.45Set to match observed prevalence data
(antibodies and RNA)
Hepatitis C disease progressionMale
Normal/SVR
Female
Normal/SVR
F0 to F10.181/0.0000.061/0.000Average across ages
Age-specific progression as used by Razavi et al,27 adjusted by common factor across ages to match prevalence and mortality rate for Korea
F0 to F20.132/0.0000.044/0.000
F2 to F30.186/0.0000.063/0.000
F3 to CC0.128/0.0380.046/0.014
F3 to HCC0.004/0.0010.002/0.000
CC to HCC0.052/0.0160.029/0.009
CC to DCC0.028/0.0100.022/0.010
Sustained virological response ratesMaleFemaleWHO39
0.950.95
General health screening rateMaleFemaleNHIS15
ABAB
 Age
 Under 20 years01.0001.00
 20–29 years0.400.600.400.60
 30–39 years0.750.250.500.50
 40 years and over0.750.250.750.25
Transition rate between category A and BFrom age 40, 5% from A to B,
15.8% from B to A
Assumption (online supplementary appendix 1)
Costs parameters
Hepatitis C screening
Antibody testUS$20Test25
RNA testUS$150Test25
Treatment costs
Chronic hepatitis CUS$10 000Patient26
CCUS$2064Patient32
DCUS$6146Patient32
HCCUS$8000Year22
Liver transplantUS$35 000Case33
Postliver transplantUS$5000Year33
  • CC, compensated cirrhosis; DAAs, direct-acting antivirals; DC, decompensated cirrhosis; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; HCV, hepatitis C virus; HIRA, Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service; KHNAES, Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; NHIS, National Health Insurance Scheme; SVR, sustained virological response.