Value | Source | ||||
Initial population (2015) | |||||
Hepatitis C prevalence | Male | Female | |||
Antibody | 0.6% | 0.7% | KHNAES20 | ||
HCV RNA | 0.3% | 0.4% | 12 | ||
No of people on DAAs treatment | HIRA25 | ||||
2015 | 26K | 20K | |||
2016 | 23K | 31K | |||
Fixed parameters | |||||
Mortality from hepatitis C | HCV RNA | HCV antibody | |||
Up to CC | 0 | 0 | |||
HCC | 0.20 | 0.20 | 19 23 | ||
DCC | 0.15 | 0.15 | 19 23 | ||
Liver transplant | 0.10 | 0.10 | 19 21 23 24 | ||
Mortality from other causes | Sex-specific and age-specific estimates and projections based on World Population Prospects 2017 | 18 | |||
Incidence of hepatitis C | Constant ‘thrust of infection’ parameters, implying incidence rate of 0.06% in 2015. | Derived from national prevalence estimates | |||
Spontaneous clearance | 0.45 | 0.45 | Set to match observed prevalence data (antibodies and RNA) | ||
Hepatitis C disease progression | Male Normal/SVR | Female Normal/SVR | |||
F0 to F1 | 0.181/0.000 | 0.061/0.000 | Average across ages Age-specific progression as used by Razavi et al,27 adjusted by common factor across ages to match prevalence and mortality rate for Korea | ||
F0 to F2 | 0.132/0.000 | 0.044/0.000 | |||
F2 to F3 | 0.186/0.000 | 0.063/0.000 | |||
F3 to CC | 0.128/0.038 | 0.046/0.014 | |||
F3 to HCC | 0.004/0.001 | 0.002/0.000 | |||
CC to HCC | 0.052/0.016 | 0.029/0.009 | |||
CC to DCC | 0.028/0.010 | 0.022/0.010 | |||
Sustained virological response rates | Male | Female | WHO39 | ||
0.95 | 0.95 | ||||
General health screening rate | Male | Female | NHIS15 | ||
A | B | A | B | ||
Age | |||||
Under 20 years | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 1.00 | |
20–29 years | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.60 | |
30–39 years | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
40 years and over | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.25 | |
Transition rate between category A and B | From age 40, 5% from A to B, 15.8% from B to A | Assumption (online supplementary appendix 1) | |||
Costs parameters | |||||
Hepatitis C screening | |||||
Antibody test | US$20 | Test | 25 | ||
RNA test | US$150 | Test | 25 | ||
Treatment costs | |||||
Chronic hepatitis C | US$10 000 | Patient | 26 | ||
CC | US$2064 | Patient | 32 | ||
DC | US$6146 | Patient | 32 | ||
HCC | US$8000 | Year | 22 | ||
Liver transplant | US$35 000 | Case | 33 | ||
Postliver transplant | US$5000 | Year | 33 |
CC, compensated cirrhosis; DAAs, direct-acting antivirals; DC, decompensated cirrhosis; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; HCV, hepatitis C virus; HIRA, Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service; KHNAES, Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; NHIS, National Health Insurance Scheme; SVR, sustained virological response.