Description of probability | Probabilities (sensitivity analyses ranges) for each strategy | Distribution applied in probabilistic sensitivity analysis | Source* | |||
Standard care | Clinical prediction | Targeted testing | Universal testing | |||
Clinical prediction | ||||||
Having high pretest probability of influenza | – | 0.15 (0.12–0.18) | 0.15 (0.12–0.18) | – | Beta | Phase I11 |
Having influenza | ||||||
Overall | 0.39 (0.35– 0.43) | – | – | 0.39 (0.35– 0.43) | Beta | All11 |
If high pretest probability of influenza | – | 0.60 (0.49–0.71) | 0.60 (0.49–0.71) | Beta | All11 | |
If low pretest probability of influenza | – | 0.35 (0.31–0.40) | 0.35 (0.31–0.40) | Beta | All11 | |
Receiving antibiotic prescriptions | ||||||
If high pretest probability of influenza | – | 0.73 (0.63–0.83)† | – | Beta | All11 | |
If low pretest probability of influenza | – | 0.78 (0.72–0.84)‡ | 0.78 (0.72–0.84)‡ | Beta | All11 | |
If influenza positive, result known | – | – | 0.62 (0.51–0.74) | 0.62 (0.51–0.74) | Beta | Phase II12 |
If influenza positive, result unknown | 0.83 (0.76-0.89) | – | – | Beta | Phase I12 | |
If influenza negative, result known | – | – | 0.76 (0.70–0.82) | 0.76 (0.70–0.82) | Beta | Phase II12 |
If influenza negative, result unknown | 0.80 (0.74-0.87) | – | – | Beta | Phase I12 | |
Test characteristics | ||||||
Sensitivity of rapid influenza test | – | – | 0.88 (0.84–0.93) | 0.88 (0.84–0.93) | Beta | All11 |
Specificity of rapid influenza test | – | – | 0.95 (0.93–0.98) | 0.95 (0.93–0.98) | Beta | All11 |
Probabilities are presented for four strategies: standard care, clinical prediction, targeted testing for influenza and universal testing for influenza.
*The source of data indicates whether probabilities were extracted from phase I, phase II or the entire study (All) from which data are derived.
†Since the impact of the clinical prediction tool on antibiotic prescribing patterns is unknown, patients with a high pretest probability of influenza were estimated to have the probability of antibiotic prescriptions with a known positive rapid influenza test +0.5 * (difference in probability of receiving antibiotics with unknown vs known positive influenza test).
‡Patients with a low pretest probability of influenza were estimated to have the probability of antibiotic prescriptions with a known negative rapid influenza test +0.5 * (difference in probability of receiving antibiotics with unknown vs known negative influenza test).