Table 5

Results from sensitivity analyses modelling no trend in BMI or beverage consumption, equal elasticity estimates for quintiles, halved change in energy intake without cross-price elasticities, equal mortality for quintiles and weighted prices, with output expressed as proportion of base model results

OutcomeSensitivityQ1 (lowest)Q2Q3Q4Q5 (highest)
Change obese maleNo trends0.840.920.860.830.88
Elasticities0.800.901.051.050.99
Half Δenergy0.500.500.490.510.52
Same mortality0.991.041.011.041.02
Pricing1.011.071.001.050.97
Change obese femaleNo trends0.850.920.860.830.88
Elasticities0.800.881.051.050.99
Half Δenergy0.510.500.490.490.53
Same mortality1.011.041.031.021.00
Pricing1.001.081.001.070.96
Change HALYs maleNo trends0.290.340.320.330.36
Elasticities0.860.911.051.070.99
Half Δenergy0.580.570.540.560.58
Same mortality1.051.071.011.000.92
Pricing1.021.071.001.070.96
Change HALYs femaleNo trends0.280.310.300.320.34
Elasticities0.830.911.041.060.99
Half Δenergy0.570.570.540.550.58
Same mortality1.001.021.011.041.02
Pricing1.031.061.001.050.97
  • BMI, Body Mass Index; HALY, health-adjusted life year.