Table 2

Sensitivity analysis: effects of changes in costing assumptions on cost of insulin per year (percentage change relative to base case)

Base case (competitive formula)US$48US$78US$95US$95US$94US$283US$98
API cost
 DoubledUS$63 (+31%)US$122 (+56%)US$156 (+64%)US$157 (+65%)US$155 (+65%)US$533 (+88%)US$162 (+55%)
 HalvedUS$40 (−17%)US$56 (−28%)US$64 (−33%)US$64 (−33%)US$63 (−33%)US$158 (−44%)US$66 (−33%)
Cost of phial formulation and packaging materials
 US$5.00/phialUS$151 (+215%)US$181 (+132%)US$198 (+108%)US$198 (+108%)US$197 (+109%)US$387 (+37%)US$201 (+105%)
 US$0.05/phialUS$47 (−2%)US$77 (−1%)US$94 (−1%)US$94 (−1%)US$93 (−1%)US$282 (−0%)US$97 (−1%)
Operating margin
 Higher—50%US$60 (+25%)US$97 (+25%)US$119 (+25%)US$119 (+25%)US$118 (+25%)US$354 (+25%)US$123 (+25%)
 Lower—10%US$44 (−8%)US$71 (−8%)US$87 (−8%)US$87 (−8%)US$86 (−8%)US$260 (−8%)US$90 (−8%)
  • Insulin NPH omitted, as its cost breakdown and sensitivity analyses are very similar to RHI. Use of 10 mL 1000-unit phials assumed, with 14.6 phials used per year (40 units per day).

  • API, active pharmaceutical ingredient;NPH, neutral protamine Hagedorn;RHI, regular human insulin.