Sensitivity analysis: effects of changes in costing assumptions on cost of insulin per year (percentage change relative to base case)
Assumption | RHI | Glargine | Aspart | Lispro | Glulisine | Detemir | Degludec |
Base case (competitive formula) | US$48 | US$78 | US$95 | US$95 | US$94 | US$283 | US$98 |
API cost | |||||||
Doubled | US$63 (+31%) | US$122 (+56%) | US$156 (+64%) | US$157 (+65%) | US$155 (+65%) | US$533 (+88%) | US$162 (+55%) |
Halved | US$40 (−17%) | US$56 (−28%) | US$64 (−33%) | US$64 (−33%) | US$63 (−33%) | US$158 (−44%) | US$66 (−33%) |
Cost of phial formulation and packaging materials | |||||||
US$5.00/phial | US$151 (+215%) | US$181 (+132%) | US$198 (+108%) | US$198 (+108%) | US$197 (+109%) | US$387 (+37%) | US$201 (+105%) |
US$0.05/phial | US$47 (−2%) | US$77 (−1%) | US$94 (−1%) | US$94 (−1%) | US$93 (−1%) | US$282 (−0%) | US$97 (−1%) |
Operating margin | |||||||
Higher—50% | US$60 (+25%) | US$97 (+25%) | US$119 (+25%) | US$119 (+25%) | US$118 (+25%) | US$354 (+25%) | US$123 (+25%) |
Lower—10% | US$44 (−8%) | US$71 (−8%) | US$87 (−8%) | US$87 (−8%) | US$86 (−8%) | US$260 (−8%) | US$90 (−8%) |
Insulin NPH omitted, as its cost breakdown and sensitivity analyses are very similar to RHI. Use of 10 mL 1000-unit phials assumed, with 14.6 phials used per year (40 units per day).
API, active pharmaceutical ingredient;NPH, neutral protamine Hagedorn;RHI, regular human insulin.