I—poorest | II | III | IV | V—richest | Total | |
Scenario 1: PCV13 at DPT coverage (76.8%), incremental to the no-vaccination scenario | ||||||
Deaths averted | 178 (127 to 226) | 135 (89 to 184) | 116 (66 to 151) | 89 (32 to 122) | 45 (19 to 87) | 558 (457 to 656) |
OOP expenditure averted* | US$143 (US$133 to US$154) | US$109 (US$102 to US$120) | US$83.7 (US$71.5 to US$93.4) | US$90.7 (US$80.4 to US$101) | US$111 (US$97.9 to US$122) | US$538 (US$514 to US$562) |
Money-metric VOI* | US$78.0 (US$70.8 to US$84.4) | US$36.3 (US$33.7 to US$39.7) | US$20.6 (US$17.6 to US$23.4) | US$16.2 (US$14.0 to US$17.9) | US$8.90 (US$7.80 to US$10.0) | US$160 (US$151 to US$168) |
Scenario 2: PCV13 at 90% coverage, incremental to scenario 1 | ||||||
Deaths averted | 55 (11 to 103) | 78 (42 to 115) | 16 (−17 to 58) | −5 (−37 to 42) | 38 (−2 to 60) | 186 (100 to 272) |
OOP expenditure averted* | US$51.7 (US$41.2 to US$60.7) | US$37.2 (US$29.5 to US$44.7) | US$50.5 (US$42.1 to US$59.8) | US$32.9 (US$24.3 to US$43.4) | US$42.2 (US$33.7 to US$55.6) | US$215 (US$195 to US$237) |
Money-metric VOI* | US$27.9 (US$22.1 to US$33.7) | US$12.5 (US$9.80 to US$15.3) | US$13.0 (US$10.7 to US$14.4) | US$5.90 (US$4.30 to US$7.80) | US$3.40 (US$2.60 to US$4.70) | US$62.6 (US$55.6 to US$69.6) |
Incremental differences between medians for 20 simulated years in each scenario using base-case parameters: intervention scenario 1 incremental to the no-vaccination scenario and intervention scenario 2 incremental to scenario 1. The totals are for a population of 100 000 under-fives. The distribution of under-fives across wealth quintiles is not equal. 95% CIs in parentheses were constructed by 5000 bootstrap samples for each scenario overall all parameter sets.
*Present value discounted at 3% annually; US 2014 dollars; in thousands.
DPT, diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus; OOP, out-of-pocket; PCV, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine; VOI, value of insurance.