Table 2

Twenty-year outcomes and present value costs per 100 000 under-fives by wealth quintile (all parameter sets)

I—poorestIIIIIIVV—richestTotal
Scenario 1: PCV13 at DPT coverage (76.8%), incremental to the no-vaccination scenario
 Deaths averted178 (127 to 226)135 (89 to 184)116 (66 to 151)89 (32 to 122)45 (19 to 87)558 (457 to 656)
 OOP expenditure averted*US$143
(US$133 to US$154)
US$109
(US$102 to US$120)
US$83.7
(US$71.5 to US$93.4)
US$90.7
(US$80.4 to US$101)
US$111
(US$97.9 to US$122)
US$538
(US$514 to US$562)
 Money-metric
 VOI*
US$78.0
(US$70.8 to US$84.4)
US$36.3
(US$33.7 to US$39.7)
US$20.6
(US$17.6 to US$23.4)
US$16.2
(US$14.0 to US$17.9)
US$8.90
(US$7.80 to US$10.0)
US$160
(US$151 to US$168)
Scenario 2: PCV13 at 90% coverage, incremental to scenario 1
 Deaths averted55 (11 to 103)78 (42 to 115)16 (−17 to 58)−5 (−37 to 42)38 (−2 to 60)186 (100 to 272)
 OOP expenditure averted*US$51.7
(US$41.2 to US$60.7)
US$37.2
(US$29.5 to US$44.7)
US$50.5
(US$42.1 to US$59.8)
US$32.9
(US$24.3 to US$43.4)
US$42.2
(US$33.7 to US$55.6)
US$215
(US$195 to US$237)
 Money-metric
 VOI*
US$27.9
(US$22.1 to US$33.7)
US$12.5
(US$9.80 to US$15.3)
US$13.0
(US$10.7 to US$14.4)
US$5.90
(US$4.30 to US$7.80)
US$3.40
(US$2.60 to US$4.70)
US$62.6
(US$55.6 to US$69.6)
  • Incremental differences between medians for 20 simulated years in each scenario using base-case parameters: intervention scenario 1 incremental to the no-vaccination scenario and intervention scenario 2 incremental to scenario 1. The totals are for a population of 100 000 under-fives. The distribution of under-fives across wealth quintiles is not equal. 95% CIs in parentheses were constructed by 5000 bootstrap samples for each scenario overall all parameter sets.

  • *Present value discounted at 3% annually; US 2014 dollars; in thousands.

  • DPT, diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus; OOP, out-of-pocket; PCV, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine; VOI, value of insurance.