Table 2

Twenty-year outcomes and present value costs per 100 000 under-fives by wealth quintile (all parameter sets)

 I—poorest II III IV V—richest Total Scenario 1: PCV13 at DPT coverage (76.8%), incremental to the no-vaccination scenario Deaths averted 178 (127 to 226) 135 (89 to 184) 116 (66 to 151) 89 (32 to 122) 45 (19 to 87) 558 (457 to 656) OOP expenditure averted* US$143 (US$133 to US$154) US$109 (US$102 to US$120) US$83.7 (US$71.5 to US$93.4) US$90.7 (US$80.4 to US$101) US$111 (US$97.9 to US$122) US$538 (US$514 to US$562) Money-metric  VOI* US$78.0 (US$70.8 to US$84.4) US$36.3 (US$33.7 to US$39.7) US$20.6 (US$17.6 to US$23.4) US$16.2 (US$14.0 to US$17.9) US$8.90 (US$7.80 to US$10.0) US$160 (US$151 to US$168) Scenario 2: PCV13 at 90% coverage, incremental to scenario 1 Deaths averted 55 (11 to 103) 78 (42 to 115) 16 (−17 to 58) −5 (−37 to 42) 38 (−2 to 60) 186 (100 to 272) OOP expenditure averted* US$51.7 (US$41.2 to US$60.7) US$37.2 (US$29.5 to US$44.7) US$50.5 (US$42.1 to US$59.8) US$32.9 (US$24.3 to US$43.4) US$42.2 (US$33.7 to US$55.6) US$215 (US$195 to US$237) Money-metric  VOI* US$27.9 (US$22.1 to US$33.7) US$12.5 (US$9.80 to US$15.3) US$13.0 (US$10.7 to US$14.4) US$5.90 (US$4.30 to US$7.80) US$3.40 (US$2.60 to US$4.70) US$62.6 (US$55.6 to US$69.6)
• Incremental differences between medians for 20 simulated years in each scenario using base-case parameters: intervention scenario 1 incremental to the no-vaccination scenario and intervention scenario 2 incremental to scenario 1. The totals are for a population of 100 000 under-fives. The distribution of under-fives across wealth quintiles is not equal. 95% CIs in parentheses were constructed by 5000 bootstrap samples for each scenario overall all parameter sets.

• *Present value discounted at 3% annually; US 2014 dollars; in thousands.

• DPT, diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus; OOP, out-of-pocket; PCV, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine; VOI, value of insurance.