Table 1

Estimates of infection attack rates (IAR) of viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes following epidemics in populations that were presumably immunologically naïve to these viruses prior to each epidemic. Of these 13 estimates, 12 were based on virus-specific serological assays (eg, IgG and/or IgM) of a cross-section of the population, and one36 was based on extrapolating an estimated clinical attack rate of 0.029 assuming a reporting rate of 0.75 to obtain a conservative estimate of IAR in that case. These IAR estimates were used to calibrate the model originally described by Perkins et al 16 Some IAR estimates from other epidemics were not included for a variety of reasons, including ambiguity about the level of immunity prior to an epidemic or a lack of high-quality gridded data in locations such as small islands on variables used by the model to make location-specific IAR projections.

IARVirusLocationPossible vector species involvedRef.
0.75CHIKVLamu Island, Kenya Ae. aegypti 30
0.73ZIKVYap Island, Micronesia Ae. hensilli 35
0.446CHIKVMananjary, Madagascar Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus 31
0.26CHIKVMayotte Island, Comoros Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus 32
0.24CHIKVOrissa, India Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Ae. vitattus 33
0.227CHIKVManakara, Madagasar Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus 31
0.169CHIKVSaint Martin Ae. aegypti 34
0.103CHIKVEmilia Romagna, Italy Ae. albopictus 35
0.039CHIKVManagua, Nicaragua Ae. aegypti 36
0.031CHIKVMoramanga, Madagascar Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus 31
0.011CHIKVAmbositra, Madagascar Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus 31
0.01CHIKVIfanadiana, Madagascar Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus 31
0CHIKVTsiroanomandidy, Madagascar Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus 31