Table 2

Input variables of the deterministic and probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis

Input variableLikeliest(Low–high)Probability distributionSource
Costs of management of VL (US$)
Cost of VL diagnosis
 BM cost (95% CI)21.40(17.41 to 25.79)γ6 32
 Serology cost (95% CI)11.77(9.58 to 14.19)γ6
 RDT cost (min–max)1.10(1.00 to 2.20)Triangular asymmetricalRuiz-Postigo (personal communication),33 34
Cost of VL treatment (min–max)
 SB price1.70(1.20 to 3.40)Triangular asymmetrical5 6 35
 L-AmB 50 mg/phial price165.12(150.00 to 230.00)Triangular asymmetrical23
Rest of cost per hospitalisation day (IQR)
 Hospitalisation day29.45(19.00 to 37.00)γ6
Days at the hospital (days—IQR)
 Before diagnosis BM2.00(1.00 to 6.00)Log-normal6
 Before diagnosis RDT1.00(0.00 to 2.00)Log-normal6
 After diagnosis SB20.00(12.00 to 31.00)γ6
 After diagnosis 6-day course L-AmB10.00(7.28 to 13.15)γ6
 After diagnosis 2-day course L-AmB2.00(1.46 to 2.63)γ6
Treatment courses (days)
 SB20.00Point estimate5
 Six-day course L-AmB6.00Point estimate21
 Two-day course L-AmB2.00Point estimate17 24
Epidemiology (95% CI)
 VL prevalence over VL suspects0.7346(0.6126 to 0.9177)β6
Treatment outcome probabilities
Meglumine antimoniate (Glucantime) 20 mg/kg/day (95% CI)
 CFR SB0.0581(0.0416 to 0.0772)β9–17
 Relapse SB0.0460(0.0137 to 0.0964)β14 16 17 27
 Cure rate SB0.8959(0.8745 to 0.9156)β3 9 11 13–17 28
Six-day course L-AmB (Ambisome) 3 mg/kg/day (95% CI)
 CFR 6-day course L-AmB0.0076(0.0069 to 0.0084)β17 20–23 30
 Relapse 6-day course L-AmB0.0418(0.0322 to 0.0526)β17 20–23 30
 Cure rate 6-day course L-AmB0.9506(0.9375 to 0.9622)β17 20–24 29 30
Two-day course L-AmB (Ambisome) 10 mg/kg/day (95% CI)
 CFR 2-day course L-AmB0.0001(0.0000 to 0.0004)β17 23
 Relapse 2-day course L-AmB0.0227(0.0185 to 0.0274)β17 23
 Cure rate 2-day course L-AmB0.9772(0.9545 to 0.9922)β17 23 24 29
Diagnostic outcome probabilities (95% CI)
 BM sensitivity0.7700(0.7150 to 0.8150)β8
 BM specificity0.9900(0.9400 to 0.9970)β8
 RDT sensitivity0.8320(0.7410 to 0.9010)βCruz (unpublished)
 RDT specificity0.9980(0.9900 to 1.0000)βCruz (unpublished)
Macroeconomic (min–max)
 Discount rate3.00%(0.00% to 5.00%)Point estimate6
  • BM, bone marrow and microscopy; CFR, case fatality rate; L-AmB, liposomal amphotericin B; RDT, rapid diagnostic test; SB, meglumine antimoniate; VL, visceral leishmaniasis.