ARIMAX model | Predictor | Stationary R2 | Parameters of the model | |||
Estimate | p Value | |||||
Global | (0,1,1) | Press releases by WHO | 0.345 | MA (lag 1) | −0.433 | 0.001 |
Predictor | 13.316 | <0.001 | ||||
USA | (0,1,1) | Press releases by CDC | 0.318 | MA (lag 1) | −0.727 | <0.001 |
Predictor | 3.869 | 0.014 | ||||
Brazil | (0,1,1) | Press releases by MHB not a predictor | 0.182 | MA (lag 1) | −0.391 | 0.003 |
ARIMAX, AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable; CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; MHB, Ministry of Health Brazil; WHO, World Health Organization